• 2513 Citations
  • 28 h-Index
19982019
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Research Output 1998 2019

2019
Open Access
Ice Cover
Uncertainty
Risk Management
Oceans and Seas
Decision Making
1 Citation (Scopus)

Impacts of Observational Constraints Related to Sea Level on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity

Vega-Westhoff, B., Sriver, R. L., Hartin, C. A., Wong, T. E. & Keller, K., Jun 2019, In : Earth's Future. 7, 6, p. 677-690 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
thermal expansion
sea level
climate
sea level change
energy balance

Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment

Ho, E., Budescu, D. V., Bosetti, V., van Vuuren, D. P. & Keller, K., Aug 1 2019, In : Climatic Change. 155, 4, p. 545-561 17 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

carbon dioxide
climate
mitigation

Optimization of multiple storm surge risk mitigation strategies for an island City On a Wedge

Ceres, R. L., Forest, C. E. & Keller, K., Sep 2019, In : Environmental Modelling and Software. 119, p. 341-353 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

storm surge
mitigation
Risk management
Decision making
damage

Publisher Correction: Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action (Nature Climate Change, (2019), 9, 4, (290-294), 10.1038/s41558-019-0426-8)

Lamontagne, J. R., Reed, P. M., Marangoni, G., Keller, K. & Garner, G. G., Jun 1 2019, In : Nature Climate Change. 9, 6, 1 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debate

Open Access
peer review
climate change
climate
1 Citation (Scopus)

Representation of U.S. warm temperature extremes in global climate model ensembles

Hogan, E., Nicholas, R. E., Keller, K., Eilts, S. & Sriver, R. L., May 1 2019, In : Journal of Climate. 32, 9, p. 2591-2603 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

global climate
climate modeling
temperature
extreme event
return period
5 Citations (Scopus)

Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action

Lamontagne, J. R., Reed, P. M., Marangoni, G., Keller, K. & Garner, G. G., Apr 1 2019, In : Nature Climate Change. 9, 4, p. 290-294 5 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalLetter

climate
warming
uncertainty
economics
economic conditions

Stilt: Easy emulation of time series AR(1) computer model output in multidimensional parameter space

Olson, R., Ruckert, K. L., Chang, W., Keller, K., Haran, M. & An, S. I., Jan 1 2019, In : R Journal. 10, 2, p. 209-225 17 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
Emulation
Computer Model
Parameter Space
Time series
Output
2018
6 Citations (Scopus)

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

Sriver, R. L., Lempert, R. J., Wikman-Svahn, P. & Keller, K., Feb 2018, In : PloS one. 13, 2, e0190641.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Sea level
Oceans and Seas
sea level
decision making
Decision Making
1 Citation (Scopus)

Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling: A case study of flood risk management in New Orleans

Vezér, M., Bakker, A., Keller, K. & Tuana, N., Mar 1 2018, In : Climatic Change. 147, 1-2

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

modeling
decision making
decision
risk management
2 Citations (Scopus)

Neglecting model structural uncertainty underestimates upper tails of flood hazard

Wong, T. E., Klufas, A., Srikrishnan, V. & Keller, K., Jul 6 2018, In : Environmental Research Letters. 13, 7, 074019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Structural Models
Uncertainty
Hazards
hazard
Statistical Models
2 Citations (Scopus)

Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet

Hermes, C., Keller, K., Nicholas, R. E., Segelbacher, G. & Martin Schaefer, H., Jan 2018, In : PloS one. 13, 1, e0191773.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Parakeets
parakeets
Climate Change
Climate change
Ecosystem
2 Citations (Scopus)

Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point

Singh, R., Quinn, J. D., Reed, P. M. & Keller, K., Feb 2018, In : PloS one. 13, 2, e0191768.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Eutrophication
Lakes
Markov Chains
Data structures
Fusion reactions
4 Citations (Scopus)
Sea level
storm surge
learning
infrastructure
Climate change
2017
3 Citations (Scopus)

A multi-objective decision-making approach to the journal submission problem

Wong, T. E., Srikrishnan, V., Hadka, D. & Keller, K., Jun 2017, In : PloS one. 12, 6, e0178874.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

decision making
Decision Making
Decision making
Research Personnel
researchers
13 Citations (Scopus)

Assessing the impact of retreat mechanisms in a simple antarctic ice sheet model using Bayesian calibration

Ruckert, K. L., Shaffer, G., Pollard, D., Guan, Y., Wong, T. E., Forest, C. E. & Keller, K., Jan 2017, In : PloS one. 12, 1, e0170052.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Ice Cover
Ice
Calibration
calibration
ice
10 Citations (Scopus)

BRICK v0.2, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections

Wong, T., Bakker, A., Ruckert, K., Applegate, P., Slangen, B. A. & Keller, K., Jul 17 2017, In : Geoscientific Model Development. 10, 7, p. 2741-2760 20 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Sea level
Climate
Building Blocks
Ice
Projection
7 Citations (Scopus)

Building a Values-Informed Mental Model for New Orleans Climate Risk Management

Bessette, D. L., Mayer, L. A., Cwik, B., Vezér, M., Keller, K., Lempert, R. J. & Tuana, N., Oct 2017, In : Risk Analysis. 37, 10, p. 1993-2004 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Risk Management
Risk management
Climate
Biodiversity
Ecosystems
10 Citations (Scopus)

Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

Wong, T. E. & Keller, K., Oct 2017, In : Earth's Future. 5, 10, p. 1015-1026 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

ice sheet
storm surge
levee
radiative forcing
sensitivity analysis
12 Citations (Scopus)

Direct policy search for robust multi-objective management of deeply uncertain socio-ecological tipping points

Quinn, J. D., Reed, P. M. & Keller, K., Jan 1 2017, In : Environmental Modelling and Software. 92, p. 125-141 17 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Pollution control
pollution control
Lakes
lake
Uncertain systems
21 Citations (Scopus)

Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense

Wong, T. E., Bakker, A. M. R. & Keller, K., Sep 1 2017, In : Climatic Change. 144, 2, p. 347-364 18 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

sea level
coastal protection
cost-benefit analysis
ice sheet
defence
5 Citations (Scopus)

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay

Ruckert, K. L., Oddo, P. C. & Keller, K., Mar 2017, In : PloS one. 12, 3, e0174666.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

San Francisco
Sea level
Oceans and Seas
sea level
Uncertainty
7 Citations (Scopus)

Indicators and metrics for the assessment of climate engineering

Oschlies, A., Held, H., Keller, D., Keller, K., Mengis, N., Quaas, M., Rickels, W. & Schmidt, H., Jan 1 2017, In : Earth's Future. 5, 1, p. 49-58 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

engineering
climate
climate modeling
indicator
environmental policy
7 Citations (Scopus)

Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate

Lee, B. S., Haran, M. & Keller, K., Oct 28 2017, In : Geophysical Research Letters. 44, 20, p. 10,617-10,623

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

storm surges
storm surge
climate
warming
heating
13 Citations (Scopus)

Predicting root zone soil moisture with soil properties and satellite near-surface moisture data across the conterminous United States

Baldwin, D., Manfreda, S., Keller, K. & Smithwick, E. A. H., Mar 1 2017, In : Journal of Hydrology. 546, p. 393-404 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

rhizosphere
soil property
soil moisture
moisture
Kalman filter
17 Citations (Scopus)

Priority for the worse-off and the social cost of carbon

Adler, M., Anthoff, D., Bosetti, V., Garner, G., Keller, K. & Treich, N., Jun 1 2017, In : Nature Climate Change. 7, 6, p. 443-449 7 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

social costs
social welfare
carbon
climate policy
environmental policy
2 Citations (Scopus)

Probabilistic inversion of expert assessments to inform projections about Antarctic ice sheet responses

Fuller, R. W., Wong, T. E. & Keller, K., Dec 2017, In : PloS one. 12, 12, e0190115.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Ice Cover
Ice
Uncertainty
ice
Oceans and Seas
14 Citations (Scopus)

Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet

Bakker, A. M. R., Wong, T. E., Ruckert, K. L. & Keller, K., Dec 1 2017, In : Scientific reports. 7, 1, 3880.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Ice Cover
Oceans and Seas
Uncertainty
Decision Making
12 Citations (Scopus)

Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections

Bakker, A. M. R., Louchard, D. & Keller, K., Feb 1 2017, In : Climatic Change. 140, 3-4, p. 339-347 9 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

sea level
sea level change
distribution
opinion
risk management
4 Citations (Scopus)

The effects of time-varying observation errors on semi-empirical sea-level projections

Ruckert, K. L., Guan, Y., Bakker, A. M. R., Forest, C. E. & Keller, K., Feb 1 2017, In : Climatic Change. 140, 3-4, p. 349-360 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

sea level
impact structure
autocorrelation
flooding
effect
2 Citations (Scopus)

Understanding scientists’ computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models

Mayer, L. A., Loa, K., Cwik, B., Tuana, N., Keller, K., Gonnerman, C., Parker, A. M. & Lempert, R. J., Jan 1 2017, In : Global Environmental Change. 42, p. 107-116 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

risk management
climate
modeling
Values
value judgement
11 Citations (Scopus)

Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge

Ceres, R. L., Forest, C. E. & Keller, K., Nov 1 2017, In : Climatic Change. 145, 1-2, p. 221-235 15 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

storm surge
infrastructure
simulation
statistics
experiment
2016
14 Citations (Scopus)

A potential disintegration of the west antarctic ice sheet: Implications for economic analyses of climate policy

Diaz, D. & Keller, K., May 2016, In : American Economic Review. 106, 5, p. 607-611 5 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Climate policy
Economics
Disintegration
6 Citations (Scopus)

A simple, physically motivated model of sea-level contributions from the Greenland ice sheet in response to temperature changes

Bakker, A. M. R., Applegate, P. J. & Keller, K., Sep 1 2016, In : Environmental Modelling and Software. 83, p. 27-35 9 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Sea level
Ice
ice sheet
sea level
temperature
11 Citations (Scopus)

Climate risk management requires explicit representation of societal trade-offs

Garner, G., Reed, P. & Keller, K., Feb 1 2016, In : Climatic Change. 134, 4, p. 713-723 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

stakeholder
climate
abatement cost
economics
trade-off
5 Citations (Scopus)

Immersive analytics for multi-objective dynamic integrated climate-economy (DICE) models

Simpson, M., Wallgrün, J. O., Klippel, A., Yang, L., Garner, G., Keller, K., Oprean, D. & Bansal, S., Nov 6 2016, Companion Proceedings of the 2016 ACM International Conference on Interactive Surfaces and Spaces: Nature Meets Interactive Surfaces, ISS 2016. Association for Computing Machinery, Inc, p. 99-105 7 p. (Companion Proceedings of the 2016 ACM International Conference on Interactive Surfaces and Spaces: Nature Meets Interactive Surfaces, ISS 2016).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Visualization
Decision making
2015
5 Citations (Scopus)

A composite likelihood approach to computer model calibration with high-dimensional spatial data

Chang, W., Haran, M., Olson, R. & Keller, K., Jan 2015, In : Statistica Sinica. 25, 1, p. 243-259 17 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Composite Likelihood
Model Calibration
Computer Model
Spatial Data
High-dimensional Data
51 Citations (Scopus)

An open source framework for many-objective robust decision making

Hadka, D., Herman, J., Reed, P. & Keller, K., Dec 1 2015, In : Environmental Modelling and Software. 74, p. 114-129 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Lakes
Decision making
decision making
Planning
Visualization
12 Citations (Scopus)

Confronting tipping points: Can multi-objective evolutionary algorithms discover pollution control tradeoffs given environmental thresholds?

Ward, V. L., Singh, R., Reed, P. M. & Keller, K., Nov 1 2015, In : Environmental Modelling and Software. 73, p. 27-43 17 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Pollution control
pollution control
Evolutionary algorithms
Lakes
Phosphorus
regional climate
climate
temperature
risk management
simulation
24 Citations (Scopus)
regional climate
climate
temperature
risk management
simulation
11 Citations (Scopus)
Greenland
Ice Cover
Sea level
Solar radiation
Oceans and Seas
14 Citations (Scopus)

Increasing temperature forcing reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response time scale

Applegate, P. J., Parizek, B. R., Nicholas, R. E., Alley, R. B. & Keller, K., Oct 1 2015, In : Climate Dynamics. 45, 7-8, p. 2001-2011 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

ice sheet
timescale
temperature
temperature anomaly
sea level
31 Citations (Scopus)

Many-objective robust decision making for managing an ecosystem with a deeply uncertain threshold response

Singh, R., Reed, P. M. & Keller, K., Sep 2015, In : Ecology and Society. 20, 3, 12.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

decision making
ecosystem
lake
decision
probability density function
2014
4 Citations (Scopus)

Aided and unaided decisions with imprecise probabilities in the domain of losses

Budescu, D. V., Broomell, S. B., Lempert, R. J. & Keller, K., Jun 1 2014, In : EURO Journal on Decision Processes. 2, 1-2, p. 31-62 32 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
Imprecise Probabilities
Vagueness
Expected Value
Climate change
Probability distributions
13 Citations (Scopus)

Evaluating terrestrial CO2 flux diagnoses and uncertainties from a simple land surface model and its residuals

Hilton, T. W., Davis, K. J. & Keller, K., Jan 21 2014, In : Biogeosciences. 11, 2, p. 217-235 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

net ecosystem exchange
land surface
uncertainty
carbon dioxide
cell respiration
17 Citations (Scopus)

Fast dimension-reduced climate model calibration and the effect of data aggregation

Chang, W., Haran, M., Olson, R. & Keller, K., Jun 2014, In : Annals of Applied Statistics. 8, 2, p. 649-673 25 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Climate models
Data Aggregation
Climate Models
Model Calibration
Reduced Model
19 Citations (Scopus)

Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity

Urban, N. M., Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Sriver, R. L. & Keller, K., Apr 16 2014, In : Geophysical Research Letters. 41, 7, p. 2543-2552 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

learning
climate
sensitivity
oceans
ocean
32 Citations (Scopus)
Sensitivity analysis
sensitivity analysis
Climate change
climate change
Economics