A Data-Driven Personalized Model of Glucose Dynamics Taking Account of the Effects of Physical Activity for Type 1 Diabetes: An in Silico Study

Jinyu Xie, Qian Wang

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    Abstract

    This paper aims to develop a data-driven model for glucose dynamics taking into account the effects of physical activity (PA) through a numerical study. It intends to investigate PA's immediate effect on insulin-independent glucose variation and PA's prolonged effect on insulin sensitivity. We proposed a nonlinear model with PA (NLPA), consisting of a linear regression of PA and a bilinear regression of insulin and PA. The model was identified and evaluated using data generated from a physiological PA-glucose model by Dalla Man et al. integrated with the uva/Padova Simulator. Three metrics were computed to compare blood glucose (BG) predictions by NLPA, a linear model with PA (LPA), and a linear model with no PA (LOPA). For PA's immediate effect on glucose, NLPA and LPA showed 45-160% higher mean goodness of fit (FIT) than LOPA under 30 min-ahead glucose prediction (P < 0.05). For the prolonged PA effect on glucose, NLPA showed 87% higher FIT than LPA (P < 0.05) for simulations using no previous measurements. NLPA had 25-37% and 31-54% higher sensitivity in predicting postexercise hypoglycemia than LPA and LOPA, respectively. This study demonstrated the following qualitative trends: (1) for moderate-intensity exercise, accuracy of BG prediction was improved by explicitly accounting for PA's effect; and (2) accounting for PA's prolonged effect on insulin sensitivity can increase the chance of early prediction of postexercise hypoglycemia. Such observations will need to be further evaluated through human subjects in the future.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Article number0110061
    JournalJournal of Biomechanical Engineering
    Volume141
    Issue number1
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Jan 1 2019

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    Medical problems
    Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus
    Computer Simulation
    Glucose
    Insulin
    Linear Models
    Hypoglycemia
    Insulin Resistance
    Blood Glucose
    Blood
    Nonlinear Dynamics
    Linear regression
    Simulators

    All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

    • Biomedical Engineering
    • Physiology (medical)

    Cite this

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    title = "A Data-Driven Personalized Model of Glucose Dynamics Taking Account of the Effects of Physical Activity for Type 1 Diabetes: An in Silico Study",
    abstract = "This paper aims to develop a data-driven model for glucose dynamics taking into account the effects of physical activity (PA) through a numerical study. It intends to investigate PA's immediate effect on insulin-independent glucose variation and PA's prolonged effect on insulin sensitivity. We proposed a nonlinear model with PA (NLPA), consisting of a linear regression of PA and a bilinear regression of insulin and PA. The model was identified and evaluated using data generated from a physiological PA-glucose model by Dalla Man et al. integrated with the uva/Padova Simulator. Three metrics were computed to compare blood glucose (BG) predictions by NLPA, a linear model with PA (LPA), and a linear model with no PA (LOPA). For PA's immediate effect on glucose, NLPA and LPA showed 45-160{\%} higher mean goodness of fit (FIT) than LOPA under 30 min-ahead glucose prediction (P < 0.05). For the prolonged PA effect on glucose, NLPA showed 87{\%} higher FIT than LPA (P < 0.05) for simulations using no previous measurements. NLPA had 25-37{\%} and 31-54{\%} higher sensitivity in predicting postexercise hypoglycemia than LPA and LOPA, respectively. This study demonstrated the following qualitative trends: (1) for moderate-intensity exercise, accuracy of BG prediction was improved by explicitly accounting for PA's effect; and (2) accounting for PA's prolonged effect on insulin sensitivity can increase the chance of early prediction of postexercise hypoglycemia. Such observations will need to be further evaluated through human subjects in the future.",
    author = "Jinyu Xie and Qian Wang",
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    AB - This paper aims to develop a data-driven model for glucose dynamics taking into account the effects of physical activity (PA) through a numerical study. It intends to investigate PA's immediate effect on insulin-independent glucose variation and PA's prolonged effect on insulin sensitivity. We proposed a nonlinear model with PA (NLPA), consisting of a linear regression of PA and a bilinear regression of insulin and PA. The model was identified and evaluated using data generated from a physiological PA-glucose model by Dalla Man et al. integrated with the uva/Padova Simulator. Three metrics were computed to compare blood glucose (BG) predictions by NLPA, a linear model with PA (LPA), and a linear model with no PA (LOPA). For PA's immediate effect on glucose, NLPA and LPA showed 45-160% higher mean goodness of fit (FIT) than LOPA under 30 min-ahead glucose prediction (P < 0.05). For the prolonged PA effect on glucose, NLPA showed 87% higher FIT than LPA (P < 0.05) for simulations using no previous measurements. NLPA had 25-37% and 31-54% higher sensitivity in predicting postexercise hypoglycemia than LPA and LOPA, respectively. This study demonstrated the following qualitative trends: (1) for moderate-intensity exercise, accuracy of BG prediction was improved by explicitly accounting for PA's effect; and (2) accounting for PA's prolonged effect on insulin sensitivity can increase the chance of early prediction of postexercise hypoglycemia. Such observations will need to be further evaluated through human subjects in the future.

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