A generative model for predicting terrorist incidents

Dinesh C. Verma, Archit Verma, Diane Felmlee, Gavin Pearson, Roger Whitaker

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

A major concern in coalition peace-support operations is the incidence of terrorist activity. In this paper, we propose a generative model for the occurrence of the terrorist incidents, and illustrate that an increase in diversity, as measured by the number of different social groups to which that an individual belongs, is inversely correlated with the likelihood of a terrorist incident in the society. A generative model is one that can predict the likelihood of events in new contexts, as opposed to statistical models which are used to predict the future incidents based on the history of the incidents in an existing context. Generative models can be useful in planning for persistent Information Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) since they allow an estimation of regions in the theater of operation where terrorist incidents may arise, and thus can be used to better allocate the assignment and deployment of ISR assets. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of terrorist incidents, identify factors related to occurrence of terrorist incidents, and provide a mathematical analysis calculating the likelihood of occurrence of terrorist incidents in three common real-life scenarios arising in peace-keeping operations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationGround/Air Multisensor Interoperability, Integration, and Networking for Persistent ISR VIII
EditorsTien Pham, Michael A. Kolodny
PublisherSPIE
ISBN (Electronic)9781510608818
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2017
Event8th Ground/Air Multisensor Interoperability, Integration, and Networking for Persistent ISR - Anaheim, United States
Duration: Apr 10 2017Apr 13 2017

Publication series

NameProceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering
Volume10190
ISSN (Print)0277-786X
ISSN (Electronic)1996-756X

Other

Other8th Ground/Air Multisensor Interoperability, Integration, and Networking for Persistent ISR
CountryUnited States
CityAnaheim
Period4/10/174/13/17

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials
  • Condensed Matter Physics
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Applied Mathematics
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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