A laboratory study of the benefits of including uncertainty information in weather forecasts

Mark S. Roulston, Gary E. Bolton, Andrew Nathan Kleit, Addison L. Sears-Collins

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

60 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Modern operational methods of numerical weather prediction, such as "ensemble forecasting," allow assessments of state-dependent predictability to be made. This means that forecast-specific estimates of the forecast standard errors are possible. Quantitative estimates of forecast uncertainty are often not communicated to the public as it is unclear what the value of this information will be to people who must make weather-dependent decisions. Using laboratory-based method developed by experimental economists to study individual choice it is found that nonspecialists are able to make better decisions that increase their expected reward while reducing their exposure to risk, when provided with information about the day-today uncertainty associated with temperature forecasts. The experimental framework used herein may provide a useful tool for evaluating the effectiveness with which weather forecasts can be communicated to end users.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)116-122
Number of pages7
JournalWeather and Forecasting
Volume21
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2006

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weather
ensemble forecasting
forecast
laboratory
prediction
temperature
decision
method

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Roulston, Mark S. ; Bolton, Gary E. ; Kleit, Andrew Nathan ; Sears-Collins, Addison L. / A laboratory study of the benefits of including uncertainty information in weather forecasts. In: Weather and Forecasting. 2006 ; Vol. 21, No. 1. pp. 116-122.
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A laboratory study of the benefits of including uncertainty information in weather forecasts. / Roulston, Mark S.; Bolton, Gary E.; Kleit, Andrew Nathan; Sears-Collins, Addison L.

In: Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 21, No. 1, 01.02.2006, p. 116-122.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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