A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd

Prem P. Chapagain, J. S. Van kessel, J. S. Karns, D. R. Wolfgang, E. Hovingh, K. A. Nelen, Y. H. Schukken, Y. T. Grohn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)263-272
Number of pages10
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Volume136
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2008

Fingerprint

Salmonella Infections
Theoretical Models
Infection
Disease Outbreaks
Basic Reproduction Number
Research
Salmonella

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases

Cite this

Chapagain, P. P., Van kessel, J. S., Karns, J. S., Wolfgang, D. R., Hovingh, E., Nelen, K. A., ... Grohn, Y. T. (2008). A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd. Epidemiology and Infection, 136(2), 263-272. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807008400
Chapagain, Prem P. ; Van kessel, J. S. ; Karns, J. S. ; Wolfgang, D. R. ; Hovingh, E. ; Nelen, K. A. ; Schukken, Y. H. ; Grohn, Y. T. / A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd. In: Epidemiology and Infection. 2008 ; Vol. 136, No. 2. pp. 263-272.
@article{7c1f34ed55ca44789972f128a8446917,
title = "A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd",
abstract = "We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.",
author = "Chapagain, {Prem P.} and {Van kessel}, {J. S.} and Karns, {J. S.} and Wolfgang, {D. R.} and E. Hovingh and Nelen, {K. A.} and Schukken, {Y. H.} and Grohn, {Y. T.}",
year = "2008",
month = "2",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1017/S0950268807008400",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "136",
pages = "263--272",
journal = "Epidemiology and Infection",
issn = "0950-2688",
publisher = "Cambridge University Press",
number = "2",

}

Chapagain, PP, Van kessel, JS, Karns, JS, Wolfgang, DR, Hovingh, E, Nelen, KA, Schukken, YH & Grohn, YT 2008, 'A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 136, no. 2, pp. 263-272. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807008400

A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd. / Chapagain, Prem P.; Van kessel, J. S.; Karns, J. S.; Wolfgang, D. R.; Hovingh, E.; Nelen, K. A.; Schukken, Y. H.; Grohn, Y. T.

In: Epidemiology and Infection, Vol. 136, No. 2, 01.02.2008, p. 263-272.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd

AU - Chapagain, Prem P.

AU - Van kessel, J. S.

AU - Karns, J. S.

AU - Wolfgang, D. R.

AU - Hovingh, E.

AU - Nelen, K. A.

AU - Schukken, Y. H.

AU - Grohn, Y. T.

PY - 2008/2/1

Y1 - 2008/2/1

N2 - We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.

AB - We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=38049100317&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=38049100317&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1017/S0950268807008400

DO - 10.1017/S0950268807008400

M3 - Article

C2 - 17445313

AN - SCOPUS:38049100317

VL - 136

SP - 263

EP - 272

JO - Epidemiology and Infection

JF - Epidemiology and Infection

SN - 0950-2688

IS - 2

ER -