A multistage error-growth conceptual model for mesoscale predictability

Fuqing Zhang, N. Bei, C. C. Epifanio, R. Rotunno, C. Snyder

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A multistage error-growth conceptual model was developed by examining the forecast difference between two cloud-resolving simulations. In the initial stage, errors first grow from small-scale convective instability but then quickly saturate at the convective scales on time scales of 0(1 h). In the transitional stage, the errors transform from convective-scale unbalanced motions through geostrophic adjustment and/or cold-pool dynamics. In the final stage, the balanced components of the errors project onto the large-scale flow and grow with the background baroclinic instability. An examination of the difference-error energy budget revealed that bouyancy production due mostly to moist convection is comparable to shear production due to nonlinear advection.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)287-288
Number of pages2
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume87
Issue number3
StatePublished - Mar 1 2006

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cold pool
baroclinic instability
energy budget
advection
transform
convection
timescale
simulation
project
forecast

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Zhang, F., Bei, N., Epifanio, C. C., Rotunno, R., & Snyder, C. (2006). A multistage error-growth conceptual model for mesoscale predictability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(3), 287-288.
Zhang, Fuqing ; Bei, N. ; Epifanio, C. C. ; Rotunno, R. ; Snyder, C. / A multistage error-growth conceptual model for mesoscale predictability. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2006 ; Vol. 87, No. 3. pp. 287-288.
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Zhang, F, Bei, N, Epifanio, CC, Rotunno, R & Snyder, C 2006, 'A multistage error-growth conceptual model for mesoscale predictability', Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 87, no. 3, pp. 287-288.

A multistage error-growth conceptual model for mesoscale predictability. / Zhang, Fuqing; Bei, N.; Epifanio, C. C.; Rotunno, R.; Snyder, C.

In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 87, No. 3, 01.03.2006, p. 287-288.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Zhang F, Bei N, Epifanio CC, Rotunno R, Snyder C. A multistage error-growth conceptual model for mesoscale predictability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2006 Mar 1;87(3):287-288.