TY - JOUR
T1 - A prognostic system for epithelial ovarian carcinomas using machine learning
AU - Grimley, Philip M.
AU - Liu, Zhenqiu
AU - Darcy, Kathleen M.
AU - Hueman, Matthew T.
AU - Wang, Huan
AU - Sheng, Li
AU - Henson, Donald E.
AU - Chen, Dechang
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was partially supported by grants ?Using Dendrograms to Create Prognostic Systems for Cancer? and ?Creating Prognostic Systems for Cancer? sponsored by John P. Murtha Cancer Center Research Program and grant ?Four Diamonds Fund from Penn State University? sponsored by Penn State University.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors. Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology (NFOG)
PY - 2021/8
Y1 - 2021/8
N2 - Introduction: Integrating additional factors into the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system is needed for accurate patient classification and survival prediction. In this study, we tested machine learning as a novel tool for incorporating additional prognostic parameters into the conventional FIGO staging system for stratifying patients with epithelial ovarian carcinomas and evaluating their survival. Material and methods: Cancer-specific survival data for epithelial ovarian carcinomas were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Two datasets were constructed based upon the year of diagnosis. Dataset 1 (39 514 cases) was limited to primary tumor (T), regional lymph nodes (N) and distant metastasis (M). Dataset 2 (25 291 cases) included additional parameters of age at diagnosis (A) and histologic type and grade (H). The Ensemble Algorithm for Clustering Cancer Data (EACCD) was applied to generate prognostic groups with depiction in dendrograms. C-indices provided dendrogram cutoffs and comparisons of prediction accuracy. Results: Dataset 1 was stratified into nine epithelial ovarian carcinoma prognostic groups, contrasting with 10 groups from FIGO methodology. The EACCD grouping had a slightly higher accuracy in survival prediction than FIGO staging (C-index = 0.7391 vs 0.7371, increase in C-index = 0.0020, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0012–0.0027, p = 1.8 × 10−7). Nevertheless, there remained a strong inter-system association between EACCD and FIGO (rank correlation = 0.9480, p = 6.1 × 10−15). Analysis of Dataset 2 demonstrated that A and H could be smoothly integrated with the T, N and M criteria. Survival data were stratified into nine prognostic groups with an even higher prediction accuracy (C-index = 0.7605) than when using only T, N and M. Conclusions: EACCD was successfully applied to integrate A and H with T, N and M for stratification and survival prediction of epithelial ovarian carcinoma patients. Additional factors could be advantageously incorporated to test the prognostic impact of emerging diagnostic or therapeutic advances.
AB - Introduction: Integrating additional factors into the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system is needed for accurate patient classification and survival prediction. In this study, we tested machine learning as a novel tool for incorporating additional prognostic parameters into the conventional FIGO staging system for stratifying patients with epithelial ovarian carcinomas and evaluating their survival. Material and methods: Cancer-specific survival data for epithelial ovarian carcinomas were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Two datasets were constructed based upon the year of diagnosis. Dataset 1 (39 514 cases) was limited to primary tumor (T), regional lymph nodes (N) and distant metastasis (M). Dataset 2 (25 291 cases) included additional parameters of age at diagnosis (A) and histologic type and grade (H). The Ensemble Algorithm for Clustering Cancer Data (EACCD) was applied to generate prognostic groups with depiction in dendrograms. C-indices provided dendrogram cutoffs and comparisons of prediction accuracy. Results: Dataset 1 was stratified into nine epithelial ovarian carcinoma prognostic groups, contrasting with 10 groups from FIGO methodology. The EACCD grouping had a slightly higher accuracy in survival prediction than FIGO staging (C-index = 0.7391 vs 0.7371, increase in C-index = 0.0020, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0012–0.0027, p = 1.8 × 10−7). Nevertheless, there remained a strong inter-system association between EACCD and FIGO (rank correlation = 0.9480, p = 6.1 × 10−15). Analysis of Dataset 2 demonstrated that A and H could be smoothly integrated with the T, N and M criteria. Survival data were stratified into nine prognostic groups with an even higher prediction accuracy (C-index = 0.7605) than when using only T, N and M. Conclusions: EACCD was successfully applied to integrate A and H with T, N and M for stratification and survival prediction of epithelial ovarian carcinoma patients. Additional factors could be advantageously incorporated to test the prognostic impact of emerging diagnostic or therapeutic advances.
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U2 - 10.1111/aogs.14137
DO - 10.1111/aogs.14137
M3 - Article
C2 - 33665831
AN - SCOPUS:85102643778
VL - 100
SP - 1511
EP - 1519
JO - Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica
JF - Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica
SN - 0001-6349
IS - 8
ER -