A set of preliminary model experiments for studying engineering student biases in the assessment and prioritization of risks

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Engineering decisions that have the greatest effect on worker and public safety occur early in the design process. During these decisions, engineers rely on their experience and intuition to estimate the severity and likelihood of undesired future events like failures, equipment damage, injuries, or environmental harm. These initial estimates can then form the basis of investment of limited project resources in mitigating those risks. Behavioral economics suggests that most people make significant and predictable errors when considering high consequence, low probability events. These biases have not previously been studied quantitatively in the context of engineering decisions, however. This paper describes preliminary results from a set of computerized experiments with engineering students estimating, prioritizing, and making design decisions related to risk. The undergraduate students included in this experiment were more likely to underestimate than overestimate the risk of failure. They were also more optimistic of the effects of efforts to mitigate risk than the evidence suggested. These results suggest that considerably more effort is needed to understand the characteristics and qualities of these biases in risk estimation, and understand what kinds of intervention might best ameliorate these biases and enable engineers to more effectively identify and manage the risks of technology.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationDesign, Reliability, Safety, and Risk
PublisherAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
ISBN (Electronic)9780791852187
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2018
EventASME 2018 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, IMECE 2018 - Pittsburgh, United States
Duration: Nov 9 2018Nov 15 2018

Publication series

NameASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE)
Volume13

Other

OtherASME 2018 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, IMECE 2018
CountryUnited States
CityPittsburgh
Period11/9/1811/15/18

Fingerprint

Students
Experiments
Engineers
Economics

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Mechanical Engineering

Cite this

Gernand, J. M. (2018). A set of preliminary model experiments for studying engineering student biases in the assessment and prioritization of risks. In Design, Reliability, Safety, and Risk (ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE); Vol. 13). American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME). https://doi.org/10.1115/IMECE2018-87888
Gernand, Jeremy Michael. / A set of preliminary model experiments for studying engineering student biases in the assessment and prioritization of risks. Design, Reliability, Safety, and Risk. American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), 2018. (ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE)).
@inproceedings{c24bf7ecb17e4850b1a0394dbef7f2e7,
title = "A set of preliminary model experiments for studying engineering student biases in the assessment and prioritization of risks",
abstract = "Engineering decisions that have the greatest effect on worker and public safety occur early in the design process. During these decisions, engineers rely on their experience and intuition to estimate the severity and likelihood of undesired future events like failures, equipment damage, injuries, or environmental harm. These initial estimates can then form the basis of investment of limited project resources in mitigating those risks. Behavioral economics suggests that most people make significant and predictable errors when considering high consequence, low probability events. These biases have not previously been studied quantitatively in the context of engineering decisions, however. This paper describes preliminary results from a set of computerized experiments with engineering students estimating, prioritizing, and making design decisions related to risk. The undergraduate students included in this experiment were more likely to underestimate than overestimate the risk of failure. They were also more optimistic of the effects of efforts to mitigate risk than the evidence suggested. These results suggest that considerably more effort is needed to understand the characteristics and qualities of these biases in risk estimation, and understand what kinds of intervention might best ameliorate these biases and enable engineers to more effectively identify and manage the risks of technology.",
author = "Gernand, {Jeremy Michael}",
year = "2018",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1115/IMECE2018-87888",
language = "English (US)",
series = "ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE)",
publisher = "American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)",
booktitle = "Design, Reliability, Safety, and Risk",

}

Gernand, JM 2018, A set of preliminary model experiments for studying engineering student biases in the assessment and prioritization of risks. in Design, Reliability, Safety, and Risk. ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE), vol. 13, American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), ASME 2018 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, IMECE 2018, Pittsburgh, United States, 11/9/18. https://doi.org/10.1115/IMECE2018-87888

A set of preliminary model experiments for studying engineering student biases in the assessment and prioritization of risks. / Gernand, Jeremy Michael.

Design, Reliability, Safety, and Risk. American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), 2018. (ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE); Vol. 13).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

TY - GEN

T1 - A set of preliminary model experiments for studying engineering student biases in the assessment and prioritization of risks

AU - Gernand, Jeremy Michael

PY - 2018/1/1

Y1 - 2018/1/1

N2 - Engineering decisions that have the greatest effect on worker and public safety occur early in the design process. During these decisions, engineers rely on their experience and intuition to estimate the severity and likelihood of undesired future events like failures, equipment damage, injuries, or environmental harm. These initial estimates can then form the basis of investment of limited project resources in mitigating those risks. Behavioral economics suggests that most people make significant and predictable errors when considering high consequence, low probability events. These biases have not previously been studied quantitatively in the context of engineering decisions, however. This paper describes preliminary results from a set of computerized experiments with engineering students estimating, prioritizing, and making design decisions related to risk. The undergraduate students included in this experiment were more likely to underestimate than overestimate the risk of failure. They were also more optimistic of the effects of efforts to mitigate risk than the evidence suggested. These results suggest that considerably more effort is needed to understand the characteristics and qualities of these biases in risk estimation, and understand what kinds of intervention might best ameliorate these biases and enable engineers to more effectively identify and manage the risks of technology.

AB - Engineering decisions that have the greatest effect on worker and public safety occur early in the design process. During these decisions, engineers rely on their experience and intuition to estimate the severity and likelihood of undesired future events like failures, equipment damage, injuries, or environmental harm. These initial estimates can then form the basis of investment of limited project resources in mitigating those risks. Behavioral economics suggests that most people make significant and predictable errors when considering high consequence, low probability events. These biases have not previously been studied quantitatively in the context of engineering decisions, however. This paper describes preliminary results from a set of computerized experiments with engineering students estimating, prioritizing, and making design decisions related to risk. The undergraduate students included in this experiment were more likely to underestimate than overestimate the risk of failure. They were also more optimistic of the effects of efforts to mitigate risk than the evidence suggested. These results suggest that considerably more effort is needed to understand the characteristics and qualities of these biases in risk estimation, and understand what kinds of intervention might best ameliorate these biases and enable engineers to more effectively identify and manage the risks of technology.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85060388203&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85060388203&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1115/IMECE2018-87888

DO - 10.1115/IMECE2018-87888

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:85060388203

T3 - ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE)

BT - Design, Reliability, Safety, and Risk

PB - American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)

ER -

Gernand JM. A set of preliminary model experiments for studying engineering student biases in the assessment and prioritization of risks. In Design, Reliability, Safety, and Risk. American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME). 2018. (ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE)). https://doi.org/10.1115/IMECE2018-87888