A troubleshooting guide for mechanistic plant pest forecast models

Roger D. Magarey, Scott Alan Isard

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

There is copious literature on development and validation of models to forecast risk to crops from arthropods and diseases; however, there is little published on causes of failure associated with these models. This manuscript provides mechanistic model builders and users with a list of likely problems, potential causes, possible solutions, and associated references. The problems are divided into four categories: environmental inputs, model construction and parameterization, validation, and implementation. The list is based on the authors' extensive experiences developing and running mechanistic modeling systems. A multidisciplinary approach involving researchers with expertise in pest biology, crop management, meteorology, and information technology is recommended for delivering the most effective pest forecast models.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Number of pages1
JournalJournal of Integrated Pest Management
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2017

Fingerprint

plant pests
pests
information technology
mechanistic models
model validation
crop management
crop
arthropods
researchers
meteorology
arthropod
parameterization
Biological Sciences
forecast
pest
crops
modeling

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Insect Science
  • Plant Science
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

Cite this

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A troubleshooting guide for mechanistic plant pest forecast models. / Magarey, Roger D.; Isard, Scott Alan.

In: Journal of Integrated Pest Management, Vol. 8, No. 1, 01.01.2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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