A troubleshooting guide for mechanistic plant pest forecast models

Roger D. Magarey, Scott A. Isard

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Scopus citations


There is copious literature on development and validation of models to forecast risk to crops from arthropods and diseases; however, there is little published on causes of failure associated with these models. This manuscript provides mechanistic model builders and users with a list of likely problems, potential causes, possible solutions, and associated references. The problems are divided into four categories: environmental inputs, model construction and parameterization, validation, and implementation. The list is based on the authors' extensive experiences developing and running mechanistic modeling systems. A multidisciplinary approach involving researchers with expertise in pest biology, crop management, meteorology, and information technology is recommended for delivering the most effective pest forecast models.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Number of pages1
JournalJournal of Integrated Pest Management
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 1 2017

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Plant Science
  • Insect Science
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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