Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations

Michael E. Mann, Byron A. Steinman, Sonya K. Miller

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

For several decades the existence of interdecadal and multidecadal internal climate oscillations has been asserted by numerous studies based on analyses of historical observations, paleoclimatic data and climate model simulations. Here we use a combination of observational data and state-of-the-art forced and control climate model simulations to demonstrate the absence of consistent evidence for decadal or longer-term internal oscillatory signals that are distinguishable from climatic noise. Only variability in the interannual range associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation is found to be distinguishable from the noise background. A distinct (40–50 year timescale) spectral peak that appears in global surface temperature observations appears to reflect the response of the climate system to both anthropogenic and natural forcing rather than any intrinsic internal oscillation. These findings have implications both for the validity of previous studies attributing certain long-term climate trends to internal low-frequency climate cycles and for the prospect of decadal climate predictability.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number49
JournalNature communications
Volume11
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2020

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Climate models
climate models
Climate
climate
oscillations
Data structures
simulation
Noise
Southern Oscillation
Air Conditioning
background noise
surface temperature
Temperature
low frequencies
trends
cycles

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Chemistry(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Cite this

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abstract = "For several decades the existence of interdecadal and multidecadal internal climate oscillations has been asserted by numerous studies based on analyses of historical observations, paleoclimatic data and climate model simulations. Here we use a combination of observational data and state-of-the-art forced and control climate model simulations to demonstrate the absence of consistent evidence for decadal or longer-term internal oscillatory signals that are distinguishable from climatic noise. Only variability in the interannual range associated with the El Ni{\~n}o/Southern Oscillation is found to be distinguishable from the noise background. A distinct (40–50 year timescale) spectral peak that appears in global surface temperature observations appears to reflect the response of the climate system to both anthropogenic and natural forcing rather than any intrinsic internal oscillation. These findings have implications both for the validity of previous studies attributing certain long-term climate trends to internal low-frequency climate cycles and for the prospect of decadal climate predictability.",
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Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations. / Mann, Michael E.; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.

In: Nature communications, Vol. 11, No. 1, 49, 01.12.2020.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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