Accuracy of ozone air quality forecasts in the Baltimore Metropolitan area

William F. Ryan, Eric Luebehusen

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Current photochemical model results suggest that large emissions reductions will be required to meet the National Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (03) in the northeastern United States. One approach to achieving these reductions is by instituting episodic controls during forecasted high 03 events. In order to be successful, these episodic controls must be accompanied by a viable forecasting program. This paper reports O3 forecasting results from the 1994 and 1995 summer seasons in the Baltimore metropolitan area. The forecasts are based on a meteorological regression algorithm using surface and upper air measurements and subjective forecaster analyses. The results show that short range (12-24 h) forecasts are successful in predicting multi-day severe high 03 events and low 03 cases but is less successful in forecasting isolated (single day) high 03 events. Uncertainty in the forecasts are related to poor forecasts of sky conditions, local wind conditions and lack of knowledge of boundary advection of 03 and its precursors.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Air & Waste Management Association's Annual Meeting & Exhibition
Editors Anon
PublisherAir & Waste Management Assoc
StatePublished - 1996
EventProceedings of the 1996 Air & Waste Management Association's 89th Annual Meeting & Exhibition - Nashville, TN, USA
Duration: Jun 23 1996Jun 28 1996

Other

OtherProceedings of the 1996 Air & Waste Management Association's 89th Annual Meeting & Exhibition
CityNashville, TN, USA
Period6/23/966/28/96

Fingerprint

Air quality
Ozone
Air quality standards
Advection
Air

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Engineering(all)

Cite this

Ryan, W. F., & Luebehusen, E. (1996). Accuracy of ozone air quality forecasts in the Baltimore Metropolitan area. In Anon (Ed.), Proceedings of the Air & Waste Management Association's Annual Meeting & Exhibition Air & Waste Management Assoc.
Ryan, William F. ; Luebehusen, Eric. / Accuracy of ozone air quality forecasts in the Baltimore Metropolitan area. Proceedings of the Air & Waste Management Association's Annual Meeting & Exhibition. editor / Anon. Air & Waste Management Assoc, 1996.
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title = "Accuracy of ozone air quality forecasts in the Baltimore Metropolitan area",
abstract = "Current photochemical model results suggest that large emissions reductions will be required to meet the National Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (03) in the northeastern United States. One approach to achieving these reductions is by instituting episodic controls during forecasted high 03 events. In order to be successful, these episodic controls must be accompanied by a viable forecasting program. This paper reports O3 forecasting results from the 1994 and 1995 summer seasons in the Baltimore metropolitan area. The forecasts are based on a meteorological regression algorithm using surface and upper air measurements and subjective forecaster analyses. The results show that short range (12-24 h) forecasts are successful in predicting multi-day severe high 03 events and low 03 cases but is less successful in forecasting isolated (single day) high 03 events. Uncertainty in the forecasts are related to poor forecasts of sky conditions, local wind conditions and lack of knowledge of boundary advection of 03 and its precursors.",
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Ryan, WF & Luebehusen, E 1996, Accuracy of ozone air quality forecasts in the Baltimore Metropolitan area. in Anon (ed.), Proceedings of the Air & Waste Management Association's Annual Meeting & Exhibition. Air & Waste Management Assoc, Proceedings of the 1996 Air & Waste Management Association's 89th Annual Meeting & Exhibition, Nashville, TN, USA, 6/23/96.

Accuracy of ozone air quality forecasts in the Baltimore Metropolitan area. / Ryan, William F.; Luebehusen, Eric.

Proceedings of the Air & Waste Management Association's Annual Meeting & Exhibition. ed. / Anon. Air & Waste Management Assoc, 1996.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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AB - Current photochemical model results suggest that large emissions reductions will be required to meet the National Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (03) in the northeastern United States. One approach to achieving these reductions is by instituting episodic controls during forecasted high 03 events. In order to be successful, these episodic controls must be accompanied by a viable forecasting program. This paper reports O3 forecasting results from the 1994 and 1995 summer seasons in the Baltimore metropolitan area. The forecasts are based on a meteorological regression algorithm using surface and upper air measurements and subjective forecaster analyses. The results show that short range (12-24 h) forecasts are successful in predicting multi-day severe high 03 events and low 03 cases but is less successful in forecasting isolated (single day) high 03 events. Uncertainty in the forecasts are related to poor forecasts of sky conditions, local wind conditions and lack of knowledge of boundary advection of 03 and its precursors.

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Ryan WF, Luebehusen E. Accuracy of ozone air quality forecasts in the Baltimore Metropolitan area. In Anon, editor, Proceedings of the Air & Waste Management Association's Annual Meeting & Exhibition. Air & Waste Management Assoc. 1996