Age and pedestrian injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes

A heteroskedastic logit analysis

Joon Ki Kim, Gudmundur F. Ulfarsson, Venkataraman Shankar, Sungyop Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

112 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This research explores the injury severity of pedestrians in motor-vehicle crashes. It is hypothesized that the variance of unobserved pedestrian characteristics increases with age. In response, a heteroskedastic generalized extreme value model is used. The analysis links explanatory factors with four injury outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. Police-reported crash data between 1997 and 2000 from North Carolina, USA, are used. The results show that pedestrian age induces heteroskedasticity which affects the probability of fatal injury. The effect grows more pronounced with increasing age past 65. The heteroskedastic model provides a better fit than the multinomial logit model. Notable factors increasing the probability of fatal pedestrian injury: increasing pedestrian age, male driver, intoxicated driver (2.7 times greater probability of fatality), traffic sign, commercial area, darkness with or without streetlights (2-4 times greater probability of fatality), sport-utility vehicle, truck, freeway, two-way divided roadway, speeding-involved, off roadway, motorist turning or backing, both driver and pedestrian at fault, and pedestrian only at fault. Conversely, the probability of a fatal injury decreased: with increasing driver age, during the PM traffic peak, with traffic signal control, in inclement weather, on a curved roadway, at a crosswalk, and when walking along roadway.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1695-1702
Number of pages8
JournalAccident Analysis and Prevention
Volume40
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2008

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Motor Vehicles
pedestrian
motor vehicle
Wounds and Injuries
driver
Crosswalks
Traffic signs
Traffic signals
Highway systems
Law enforcement
Sports
traffic sign
Trucks
Fatal Outcome
Darkness
traffic control
Weather
Police
Pedestrians
Walking

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Human Factors and Ergonomics
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Law

Cite this

Kim, Joon Ki ; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F. ; Shankar, Venkataraman ; Kim, Sungyop. / Age and pedestrian injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes : A heteroskedastic logit analysis. In: Accident Analysis and Prevention. 2008 ; Vol. 40, No. 5. pp. 1695-1702.
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Age and pedestrian injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes : A heteroskedastic logit analysis. / Kim, Joon Ki; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F.; Shankar, Venkataraman; Kim, Sungyop.

In: Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 40, No. 5, 01.09.2008, p. 1695-1702.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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