An accelerating precursor to predict “time-to-failure” in creep and volcanic eruptions

Shengwang Hao, Hang Yang, Derek Elsworth

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Ω̇Ω¨−1=Ctf−t has been developed to describe the time to failure, where Ω represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)252-262
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
Volume343
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2017

Fingerprint

Volcanic Eruptions
volcanic eruptions
creep
Creep
volcanic eruption
prediction
experiment
Experiments
Rocks
predictions
Monitoring
monitoring
rock
rocks
laboratory
effect
trends

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Geochemistry and Petrology

Cite this

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abstract = "Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Ω̇Ω¨−1=Ctf−t has been developed to describe the time to failure, where Ω represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent.",
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An accelerating precursor to predict “time-to-failure” in creep and volcanic eruptions. / Hao, Shengwang; Yang, Hang; Elsworth, Derek.

In: Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Vol. 343, 01.09.2017, p. 252-262.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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