TY - JOUR
T1 - An analysis of long-term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models
AU - Reed, Andra J.
AU - Mann, Michael E.
AU - Emanuel, Kerry A.
AU - Titley, David W.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors acknowledge funding for this study from NOAA grant 424-18 45GZ. We appreciate the hard work of the MPI, CCSM4, IPSL, and MIROC scientists in developing, running, and archiving data from their CMIP5 models. Data used for this project are publicly available from the Earth System Grid Federation website, http://pcmdi9.llnl. gov/esgf-web-fe/. Researchers interested in downscaled fields may contact coauthor K.E. via e-mail with their request. We are grateful for the technical assistance from Sonya Miller throughout this project. Finally, we appreciate the helpful advice, comments, and input from Michael Kozar, Raymond Najjar, and Richard Alley.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - In a changing climate, the impact of tropical cyclones on the United States Atlantic and Gulf Coasts will be affected both by how intense and how frequent these storms become. The observational record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to allow for accurate assessment of low-frequency variability in storm activity. In order to overcome the limitations of the short observational record, we downscale four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models to generate synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the Atlantic Basin that span the interval of A.D. 850-2005. Using these long-term synthetic tropical cyclone data sets, we investigate the relationship between power dissipation and ocean temperature metrics, as well as the relationship between basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone count statistics over the past millennium. Contrary to previous studies, we find only a very weak relationship between power dissipation and main development region sea surface temperature in the Atlantic Basin. Consistentwith previous studies, we find that basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone counts are significantly correlated with one another, lending further support for the use of paleohurricane landfall records to infer long-term basin-wide tropical cyclone trends.
AB - In a changing climate, the impact of tropical cyclones on the United States Atlantic and Gulf Coasts will be affected both by how intense and how frequent these storms become. The observational record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to allow for accurate assessment of low-frequency variability in storm activity. In order to overcome the limitations of the short observational record, we downscale four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models to generate synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the Atlantic Basin that span the interval of A.D. 850-2005. Using these long-term synthetic tropical cyclone data sets, we investigate the relationship between power dissipation and ocean temperature metrics, as well as the relationship between basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone count statistics over the past millennium. Contrary to previous studies, we find only a very weak relationship between power dissipation and main development region sea surface temperature in the Atlantic Basin. Consistentwith previous studies, we find that basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone counts are significantly correlated with one another, lending further support for the use of paleohurricane landfall records to infer long-term basin-wide tropical cyclone trends.
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U2 - 10.1002/2015JD023357
DO - 10.1002/2015JD023357
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84940459158
VL - 120
SP - 7506
EP - 7519
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
SN - 2169-897X
IS - 15
ER -