An evaluation of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecasting skill of tropical cyclogenesis

Aaron S. Pratt, Jenni Evans

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

An evaluation of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecasting skill of tropical cyclogenesis is presented. To better determine how successful the GFS and NOGAPS modes are at anticipating tropical cyclogenesis, the percentage of successful forecasts of all tropical lows are examined for the 2003 season. Preliminary analyses of Tropical Storm Bertha show that both the GFS and NOGAPS anticipated development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is also found to have a much stronger vortex at 72 hours than the NPGAPS counterpart.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages354-355
Number of pages2
StatePublished - Jul 14 2004
Event26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy - Miami, FL., United States
Duration: May 3 2004May 7 2004

Other

Other26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy
CountryUnited States
CityMiami, FL.
Period5/3/045/7/04

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Vortex flow

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Engineering(all)

Cite this

Pratt, A. S., & Evans, J. (2004). An evaluation of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecasting skill of tropical cyclogenesis. 354-355. Paper presented at 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy, Miami, FL., United States.
Pratt, Aaron S. ; Evans, Jenni. / An evaluation of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecasting skill of tropical cyclogenesis. Paper presented at 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy, Miami, FL., United States.2 p.
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abstract = "An evaluation of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecasting skill of tropical cyclogenesis is presented. To better determine how successful the GFS and NOGAPS modes are at anticipating tropical cyclogenesis, the percentage of successful forecasts of all tropical lows are examined for the 2003 season. Preliminary analyses of Tropical Storm Bertha show that both the GFS and NOGAPS anticipated development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is also found to have a much stronger vortex at 72 hours than the NPGAPS counterpart.",
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Pratt, AS & Evans, J 2004, 'An evaluation of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecasting skill of tropical cyclogenesis', Paper presented at 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy, Miami, FL., United States, 5/3/04 - 5/7/04 pp. 354-355.

An evaluation of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecasting skill of tropical cyclogenesis. / Pratt, Aaron S.; Evans, Jenni.

2004. 354-355 Paper presented at 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy, Miami, FL., United States.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

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Pratt AS, Evans J. An evaluation of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecasting skill of tropical cyclogenesis. 2004. Paper presented at 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy, Miami, FL., United States.