Analysis of operational model forecast trends in extratropical transition storm structure

Jenni Evans, Justin M. Arnott

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The cyclone structure life-cycle of tropical cyclones (TC) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the North Atlantic is discussed. An inspection of AVN analysis and forecast fields suggests that model representation of cyclone structure is impacted both by model biases and by bogus vortex insertion. The AVN appears to systematically overdevelop the lower tropospheric warm core of TC before ET. For cyclones undergoing ET, the inclusion of a synthetic vortex delays the transition of the cyclone's warm core structure to cold core and thus plays a role in the evolution of ET.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages50-51
Number of pages2
StatePublished - Jul 14 2004
Event26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy - Miami, FL., United States
Duration: May 3 2004May 7 2004

Other

Other26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy
CountryUnited States
CityMiami, FL.
Period5/3/045/7/04

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Vortex flow
Life cycle
Inspection

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Engineering(all)

Cite this

Evans, J., & Arnott, J. M. (2004). Analysis of operational model forecast trends in extratropical transition storm structure. 50-51. Paper presented at 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy, Miami, FL., United States.
Evans, Jenni ; Arnott, Justin M. / Analysis of operational model forecast trends in extratropical transition storm structure. Paper presented at 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy, Miami, FL., United States.2 p.
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abstract = "The cyclone structure life-cycle of tropical cyclones (TC) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the North Atlantic is discussed. An inspection of AVN analysis and forecast fields suggests that model representation of cyclone structure is impacted both by model biases and by bogus vortex insertion. The AVN appears to systematically overdevelop the lower tropospheric warm core of TC before ET. For cyclones undergoing ET, the inclusion of a synthetic vortex delays the transition of the cyclone's warm core structure to cold core and thus plays a role in the evolution of ET.",
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Evans, J & Arnott, JM 2004, 'Analysis of operational model forecast trends in extratropical transition storm structure', Paper presented at 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy, Miami, FL., United States, 5/3/04 - 5/7/04 pp. 50-51.

Analysis of operational model forecast trends in extratropical transition storm structure. / Evans, Jenni; Arnott, Justin M.

2004. 50-51 Paper presented at 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy, Miami, FL., United States.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

TY - CONF

T1 - Analysis of operational model forecast trends in extratropical transition storm structure

AU - Evans, Jenni

AU - Arnott, Justin M.

PY - 2004/7/14

Y1 - 2004/7/14

N2 - The cyclone structure life-cycle of tropical cyclones (TC) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the North Atlantic is discussed. An inspection of AVN analysis and forecast fields suggests that model representation of cyclone structure is impacted both by model biases and by bogus vortex insertion. The AVN appears to systematically overdevelop the lower tropospheric warm core of TC before ET. For cyclones undergoing ET, the inclusion of a synthetic vortex delays the transition of the cyclone's warm core structure to cold core and thus plays a role in the evolution of ET.

AB - The cyclone structure life-cycle of tropical cyclones (TC) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the North Atlantic is discussed. An inspection of AVN analysis and forecast fields suggests that model representation of cyclone structure is impacted both by model biases and by bogus vortex insertion. The AVN appears to systematically overdevelop the lower tropospheric warm core of TC before ET. For cyclones undergoing ET, the inclusion of a synthetic vortex delays the transition of the cyclone's warm core structure to cold core and thus plays a role in the evolution of ET.

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Evans J, Arnott JM. Analysis of operational model forecast trends in extratropical transition storm structure. 2004. Paper presented at 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy, Miami, FL., United States.