Assessing the contribution of internal climate variability to anthropogenic changes in ice sheet volume

Chii Yun Tsai, Chris Forest, David Pollard

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Understanding ice sheet response to different sources of uncertainty in projecting the climate is essential for assessing long-term risk of sea level rise (SLR). The impact of uncertainty caused by internal climate variability (ICV) on future ice sheet changes has not been assessed explicitly. Here we estimate how ICV affects ice sheet projections using a three-dimensional ice sheet model driven by climate fields from two large ensembles of climate model simulations differing in initial climate states. We find that ICV causes approximately 2 mm uncertainty in the estimated SLR due to Greenland ice sheet mass loss during 1992–2011, which is nearly double the observational uncertainty. Additionally, SLR differences due to ICV are about 17% of the mean total change of SLR in 2100. This study highlights a critical need to assess uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss due to ICV to obtain robust estimates of both historical and future SLR.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)6261-6268
Number of pages8
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume44
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 28 2017

Fingerprint

climate
ice sheet
ice
sea level
Greenland
climate models
estimates
climate modeling
projection
sea level rise
causes
simulation

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Cite this

@article{cb066f73b0854aefa5437112ffa51cd1,
title = "Assessing the contribution of internal climate variability to anthropogenic changes in ice sheet volume",
abstract = "Understanding ice sheet response to different sources of uncertainty in projecting the climate is essential for assessing long-term risk of sea level rise (SLR). The impact of uncertainty caused by internal climate variability (ICV) on future ice sheet changes has not been assessed explicitly. Here we estimate how ICV affects ice sheet projections using a three-dimensional ice sheet model driven by climate fields from two large ensembles of climate model simulations differing in initial climate states. We find that ICV causes approximately 2 mm uncertainty in the estimated SLR due to Greenland ice sheet mass loss during 1992–2011, which is nearly double the observational uncertainty. Additionally, SLR differences due to ICV are about 17{\%} of the mean total change of SLR in 2100. This study highlights a critical need to assess uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss due to ICV to obtain robust estimates of both historical and future SLR.",
author = "Tsai, {Chii Yun} and Chris Forest and David Pollard",
year = "2017",
month = "6",
day = "28",
doi = "10.1002/2017GL073443",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "44",
pages = "6261--6268",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "12",

}

Assessing the contribution of internal climate variability to anthropogenic changes in ice sheet volume. / Tsai, Chii Yun; Forest, Chris; Pollard, David.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, No. 12, 28.06.2017, p. 6261-6268.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Assessing the contribution of internal climate variability to anthropogenic changes in ice sheet volume

AU - Tsai, Chii Yun

AU - Forest, Chris

AU - Pollard, David

PY - 2017/6/28

Y1 - 2017/6/28

N2 - Understanding ice sheet response to different sources of uncertainty in projecting the climate is essential for assessing long-term risk of sea level rise (SLR). The impact of uncertainty caused by internal climate variability (ICV) on future ice sheet changes has not been assessed explicitly. Here we estimate how ICV affects ice sheet projections using a three-dimensional ice sheet model driven by climate fields from two large ensembles of climate model simulations differing in initial climate states. We find that ICV causes approximately 2 mm uncertainty in the estimated SLR due to Greenland ice sheet mass loss during 1992–2011, which is nearly double the observational uncertainty. Additionally, SLR differences due to ICV are about 17% of the mean total change of SLR in 2100. This study highlights a critical need to assess uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss due to ICV to obtain robust estimates of both historical and future SLR.

AB - Understanding ice sheet response to different sources of uncertainty in projecting the climate is essential for assessing long-term risk of sea level rise (SLR). The impact of uncertainty caused by internal climate variability (ICV) on future ice sheet changes has not been assessed explicitly. Here we estimate how ICV affects ice sheet projections using a three-dimensional ice sheet model driven by climate fields from two large ensembles of climate model simulations differing in initial climate states. We find that ICV causes approximately 2 mm uncertainty in the estimated SLR due to Greenland ice sheet mass loss during 1992–2011, which is nearly double the observational uncertainty. Additionally, SLR differences due to ICV are about 17% of the mean total change of SLR in 2100. This study highlights a critical need to assess uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss due to ICV to obtain robust estimates of both historical and future SLR.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85021456045&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85021456045&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1002/2017GL073443

DO - 10.1002/2017GL073443

M3 - Article

VL - 44

SP - 6261

EP - 6268

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 12

ER -