Assessing the probability of occurrence of earthquake-induced landslides offshore the U.S. East Coast: A first-order, second moment approach

Eugene C. Morgan, Laurie G. Baise

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Submarine landslides pose a direct threat to offshore infrastructure, and an indirect threat to coastal communities via tsunami generation. Recent studies have investigated the potential role that submarine landslides play in causing tsunamis on the U.S. East Coast. This paper quantitatively assesses submarine landslide hazard offshore Long Island and New Jersey, as an example, but the method herein can be applied to the entire Atlantic margin. Using publicly available bathymetry, surficial sediment data, undrained shear strength values, and earthquake ground motion predictions, we map the conditional probability of slope failure over our entire study area. We calculate this probability using a first-order, second moment estimate of the variance of critical acceleration needed to overcome the resisting forces in the infinite slope stability analysis. We show that this first-order, second moment approximation serves as a convenient and computationally efficient way of assessing submarine landslide hazard over a broad region, while also accounting for the significant uncertainties in the slope stability parameters.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationGeoRisk 2011
Subtitle of host publicationGeotechnical Risk Assessment and Management - Proceedings of the GeoRisk 2011 Conference
Pages1004-1011
Number of pages8
Edition224 GSP
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 25 2011
EventGeoRisk 2011: Geotechnical Risk Assessment and Management - Atlanta, GA, United States
Duration: Jun 26 2011Jun 28 2011

Publication series

NameGeotechnical Special Publication
Number224 GSP
ISSN (Print)0895-0563

Other

OtherGeoRisk 2011: Geotechnical Risk Assessment and Management
CountryUnited States
CityAtlanta, GA
Period6/26/116/28/11

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Architecture
  • Building and Construction
  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology

Cite this

Morgan, E. C., & Baise, L. G. (2011). Assessing the probability of occurrence of earthquake-induced landslides offshore the U.S. East Coast: A first-order, second moment approach. In GeoRisk 2011: Geotechnical Risk Assessment and Management - Proceedings of the GeoRisk 2011 Conference (224 GSP ed., pp. 1004-1011). (Geotechnical Special Publication; No. 224 GSP). https://doi.org/10.1061/41183(418)109