Association of Trajectory of Cardiovascular Health Score and Incident Cardiovascular Disease

Shouling Wu, Shasha An, Weijuan Li, Alice H. Lichtenstein, Jingsheng Gao, Penny Margaret Kris-Etherton, Yuntao Wu, Cheng Jin, Shue Huang, Frank B. Hu, Xiang Gao

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Importance: The American Heart Association 2020 Strategic Impact Goals target an improvement in overall cardiovascular health, as assessed by 7 health metrics (smoking, body weight, physical activity, diet, plasma glucose level, plasma cholesterol level, and blood pressure). Objective: To examine whether trajectories of overall cardiovascular health over time, as assessed by the cardiovascular health score (CHS) in 2006, 2008, and 2010, are associated with subsequent risk of CVD. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Kailuan study is a prospective, population-based study that began in 2006. The cohort included 74 701 Chinese adults free of myocardial infarction, stroke, and cancer in or before 2010. In the present study, CHS trajectories were developed from 2006 to 2010 to predict CVD risk from 2010 to 2015. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2015. Exposures: The CHS trajectories during 2006-2010 were identified using latent mixture models. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident CVD events (myocardial infarction and stroke) during 2010-2015 were confirmed by review of medical records. The CHS trajectories were determined using 7 cardiovascular health metrics scored as poor (0 points), intermediate (1 point), and ideal (2 points); total score ranges from 0 (worst) to 14 (best). Based on the baseline CHS and patterns over time, 5 trajectories were categorized (low-stable, moderate-increasing, moderate-decreasing, high-stable I, and high-stable II). Results: Of the 74 701 adults included in the study (mean [SD] age at baseline, 49.6 [11.8] years), 58 216 (77.9%) were men and 16 485 (22.1%) were women. Five CHS trajectories were identified from 2006 to 2010: low-stable (n = 4393; range, 4.6-5.2), moderate-increasing (n = 4643; mean increase from 5.4 to 7.8), moderate-decreasing (n = 14 853; mean decrease from 7.4 to 6.3), high-stable I (n = 36 352; range, 8.8-9.0), and high-stable II (n = 14 461; range, 10.9-11.0). During 5 years of follow-up, 1852 incident CVD cases were identified. Relative to the low-stable trajectory, the high-stable II trajectory was associated with a lower subsequent risk of CVD (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.16-0.26, after adjusting for age, sex, educational level, income, occupation, alcohol intake, and serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein concentration at baseline). Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular health trajectories may be associated with subsequent CVD risk.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)e194758
JournalJAMA network open
Volume2
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - May 3 2019

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Cardiovascular Diseases
Health
Stroke
Myocardial Infarction
Occupations
C-Reactive Protein
Medical Records
Smoking
Cholesterol
Body Weight
Alcohols
Outcome Assessment (Health Care)
Exercise
Diet
Blood Pressure
Glucose
Serum
Population

Cite this

Wu, Shouling ; An, Shasha ; Li, Weijuan ; Lichtenstein, Alice H. ; Gao, Jingsheng ; Kris-Etherton, Penny Margaret ; Wu, Yuntao ; Jin, Cheng ; Huang, Shue ; Hu, Frank B. ; Gao, Xiang. / Association of Trajectory of Cardiovascular Health Score and Incident Cardiovascular Disease. In: JAMA network open. 2019 ; Vol. 2, No. 5. pp. e194758.
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title = "Association of Trajectory of Cardiovascular Health Score and Incident Cardiovascular Disease",
abstract = "Importance: The American Heart Association 2020 Strategic Impact Goals target an improvement in overall cardiovascular health, as assessed by 7 health metrics (smoking, body weight, physical activity, diet, plasma glucose level, plasma cholesterol level, and blood pressure). Objective: To examine whether trajectories of overall cardiovascular health over time, as assessed by the cardiovascular health score (CHS) in 2006, 2008, and 2010, are associated with subsequent risk of CVD. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Kailuan study is a prospective, population-based study that began in 2006. The cohort included 74 701 Chinese adults free of myocardial infarction, stroke, and cancer in or before 2010. In the present study, CHS trajectories were developed from 2006 to 2010 to predict CVD risk from 2010 to 2015. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2015. Exposures: The CHS trajectories during 2006-2010 were identified using latent mixture models. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident CVD events (myocardial infarction and stroke) during 2010-2015 were confirmed by review of medical records. The CHS trajectories were determined using 7 cardiovascular health metrics scored as poor (0 points), intermediate (1 point), and ideal (2 points); total score ranges from 0 (worst) to 14 (best). Based on the baseline CHS and patterns over time, 5 trajectories were categorized (low-stable, moderate-increasing, moderate-decreasing, high-stable I, and high-stable II). Results: Of the 74 701 adults included in the study (mean [SD] age at baseline, 49.6 [11.8] years), 58 216 (77.9{\%}) were men and 16 485 (22.1{\%}) were women. Five CHS trajectories were identified from 2006 to 2010: low-stable (n = 4393; range, 4.6-5.2), moderate-increasing (n = 4643; mean increase from 5.4 to 7.8), moderate-decreasing (n = 14 853; mean decrease from 7.4 to 6.3), high-stable I (n = 36 352; range, 8.8-9.0), and high-stable II (n = 14 461; range, 10.9-11.0). During 5 years of follow-up, 1852 incident CVD cases were identified. Relative to the low-stable trajectory, the high-stable II trajectory was associated with a lower subsequent risk of CVD (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.21; 95{\%} CI, 0.16-0.26, after adjusting for age, sex, educational level, income, occupation, alcohol intake, and serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein concentration at baseline). Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular health trajectories may be associated with subsequent CVD risk.",
author = "Shouling Wu and Shasha An and Weijuan Li and Lichtenstein, {Alice H.} and Jingsheng Gao and Kris-Etherton, {Penny Margaret} and Yuntao Wu and Cheng Jin and Shue Huang and Hu, {Frank B.} and Xiang Gao",
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Association of Trajectory of Cardiovascular Health Score and Incident Cardiovascular Disease. / Wu, Shouling; An, Shasha; Li, Weijuan; Lichtenstein, Alice H.; Gao, Jingsheng; Kris-Etherton, Penny Margaret; Wu, Yuntao; Jin, Cheng; Huang, Shue; Hu, Frank B.; Gao, Xiang.

In: JAMA network open, Vol. 2, No. 5, 03.05.2019, p. e194758.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T1 - Association of Trajectory of Cardiovascular Health Score and Incident Cardiovascular Disease

AU - Wu, Shouling

AU - An, Shasha

AU - Li, Weijuan

AU - Lichtenstein, Alice H.

AU - Gao, Jingsheng

AU - Kris-Etherton, Penny Margaret

AU - Wu, Yuntao

AU - Jin, Cheng

AU - Huang, Shue

AU - Hu, Frank B.

AU - Gao, Xiang

PY - 2019/5/3

Y1 - 2019/5/3

N2 - Importance: The American Heart Association 2020 Strategic Impact Goals target an improvement in overall cardiovascular health, as assessed by 7 health metrics (smoking, body weight, physical activity, diet, plasma glucose level, plasma cholesterol level, and blood pressure). Objective: To examine whether trajectories of overall cardiovascular health over time, as assessed by the cardiovascular health score (CHS) in 2006, 2008, and 2010, are associated with subsequent risk of CVD. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Kailuan study is a prospective, population-based study that began in 2006. The cohort included 74 701 Chinese adults free of myocardial infarction, stroke, and cancer in or before 2010. In the present study, CHS trajectories were developed from 2006 to 2010 to predict CVD risk from 2010 to 2015. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2015. Exposures: The CHS trajectories during 2006-2010 were identified using latent mixture models. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident CVD events (myocardial infarction and stroke) during 2010-2015 were confirmed by review of medical records. The CHS trajectories were determined using 7 cardiovascular health metrics scored as poor (0 points), intermediate (1 point), and ideal (2 points); total score ranges from 0 (worst) to 14 (best). Based on the baseline CHS and patterns over time, 5 trajectories were categorized (low-stable, moderate-increasing, moderate-decreasing, high-stable I, and high-stable II). Results: Of the 74 701 adults included in the study (mean [SD] age at baseline, 49.6 [11.8] years), 58 216 (77.9%) were men and 16 485 (22.1%) were women. Five CHS trajectories were identified from 2006 to 2010: low-stable (n = 4393; range, 4.6-5.2), moderate-increasing (n = 4643; mean increase from 5.4 to 7.8), moderate-decreasing (n = 14 853; mean decrease from 7.4 to 6.3), high-stable I (n = 36 352; range, 8.8-9.0), and high-stable II (n = 14 461; range, 10.9-11.0). During 5 years of follow-up, 1852 incident CVD cases were identified. Relative to the low-stable trajectory, the high-stable II trajectory was associated with a lower subsequent risk of CVD (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.16-0.26, after adjusting for age, sex, educational level, income, occupation, alcohol intake, and serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein concentration at baseline). Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular health trajectories may be associated with subsequent CVD risk.

AB - Importance: The American Heart Association 2020 Strategic Impact Goals target an improvement in overall cardiovascular health, as assessed by 7 health metrics (smoking, body weight, physical activity, diet, plasma glucose level, plasma cholesterol level, and blood pressure). Objective: To examine whether trajectories of overall cardiovascular health over time, as assessed by the cardiovascular health score (CHS) in 2006, 2008, and 2010, are associated with subsequent risk of CVD. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Kailuan study is a prospective, population-based study that began in 2006. The cohort included 74 701 Chinese adults free of myocardial infarction, stroke, and cancer in or before 2010. In the present study, CHS trajectories were developed from 2006 to 2010 to predict CVD risk from 2010 to 2015. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2015. Exposures: The CHS trajectories during 2006-2010 were identified using latent mixture models. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident CVD events (myocardial infarction and stroke) during 2010-2015 were confirmed by review of medical records. The CHS trajectories were determined using 7 cardiovascular health metrics scored as poor (0 points), intermediate (1 point), and ideal (2 points); total score ranges from 0 (worst) to 14 (best). Based on the baseline CHS and patterns over time, 5 trajectories were categorized (low-stable, moderate-increasing, moderate-decreasing, high-stable I, and high-stable II). Results: Of the 74 701 adults included in the study (mean [SD] age at baseline, 49.6 [11.8] years), 58 216 (77.9%) were men and 16 485 (22.1%) were women. Five CHS trajectories were identified from 2006 to 2010: low-stable (n = 4393; range, 4.6-5.2), moderate-increasing (n = 4643; mean increase from 5.4 to 7.8), moderate-decreasing (n = 14 853; mean decrease from 7.4 to 6.3), high-stable I (n = 36 352; range, 8.8-9.0), and high-stable II (n = 14 461; range, 10.9-11.0). During 5 years of follow-up, 1852 incident CVD cases were identified. Relative to the low-stable trajectory, the high-stable II trajectory was associated with a lower subsequent risk of CVD (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.16-0.26, after adjusting for age, sex, educational level, income, occupation, alcohol intake, and serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein concentration at baseline). Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular health trajectories may be associated with subsequent CVD risk.

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