Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures

Byron A. Steinman, Michael E. Mann, Sonya K. Miller

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

149 Scopus citations

Abstract

The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system. To address these issues, we applied a semi-empirical approach that combines climate observations and model simulations to estimate Atlantic- and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (termed "AMO" and "PMO," respectively). Using this method, the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between a modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative-trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown or "false pause" in warming of the past decade.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)988-991
Number of pages4
JournalScience
Volume347
Issue number6225
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 27 2015

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this