Audience costs and interstate crises: An empirical assessment of fearon's model of dispute outcomes

Peter J. Partell, Glenn Hunter Palmer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

94 Scopus citations

Abstract

In a recent article, James Fearon advances an innovative approach to the study of interstate crises. He adds to the traditional view (that crisis outcomes are influenced by the balance of capability and the balance of resolve) the notion that domestic political audiences exert a strong influence over which state in a crisis is likely to achieve a successful outcome. His game-theoretic analysis yields a number of interesting hypotheses, which are tested in this study using data on militarized disputes, the structure of polities, and national capability. In general the results strongly support Fearon's model, though we find that relative national capabilities do tend to affect the outcomes of crises. This study highlights the importance of combining formal models of political events with large-N empirical tests.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)389-405
Number of pages17
JournalInternational Studies Quarterly
Volume43
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1999

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Political Science and International Relations

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