Bayesian combination of state polls and election forecasts

Kari Lock, Andrew Gelman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

23 Scopus citations

Abstract

A wide range of potentially useful data are available for election forecasting: the results of previous elections, a multitude of preelection polls, and predictors such as measures of national and statewide economic performance. How accurate are different forecasts? We estimate predictive uncertainty via analysis of data collected from past elections (actual outcomes, preelection polls, and model estimates). With these estimated uncertainties, we use Bayesian inference to integrate the various sources of data to form posterior distributions for the state and national two-party Democratic vote shares for the 2008 election. Our key idea is to separately forecast the national popular vote shares and the relative positions of the states. More generally, such an approach could be applied to study changes in public opinion and other phenomena with wide national swings and fairly stable spatial distributions relative to the national average.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)337-348
Number of pages12
JournalPolitical Analysis
Volume18
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 25 2010

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Political Science and International Relations

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