@article{1644063fbce84bd7afec362225842596,
title = "Bayesian Estimation of MSM Population Size in C{\^o}te d{\textquoteright}Ivoire",
abstract = "C{\^o}te d{\textquoteright}Ivoire has among the most generalized HIV epidemics in West Africa with an estimated half million people living with HIV. Across West Africa, key populations, including gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), are often disproportionately burdened with HIV due to specific acquisition and transmission risks. Quantifying population sizes of MSM at the subnational level is critical to ensuring evidence-based decisions regarding the scale and content of HIV prevention interventions. While survey-based direct estimates of MSM numbers are available in a few urban centers across C{\^o}te d{\textquoteright}Ivoire, no data on MSM population size exists in other areas without any community group infrastructure to facilitate sufficient access to communities of MSM. The data are used in a Bayesian regression setup to produce estimates of the numbers of MSM in areas of C{\^o}te d{\textquoteright}Ivoire prioritized in the HIV response. Our hierarchical model imputes missing covariates using geo-spatial information and allows for proper uncertainty quantification leading to confidence bounds for predicted MSM population size estimates. This process provided population size estimates where there are no empirical data, to guide the prioritization of further collection of empirical data on MSM and inform evidence-based scaling of HIV prevention and treatment programs for MSM across C{\^o}te d{\textquoteright}Ivoire.",
author = "Abhirup Datta and Wenyi Lin and Amrita Rao and Daouda Diouf and Abo Kouame and Edwards, {Jessie K.} and Le Bao and Louis, {Thomas A.} and Stefan Baral",
note = "Funding Information: Data collection in C{\^o}te d{\textquoteright}Ivoire was funded by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria through the Government of C{\^o}te d{\textquoteright}Ivoire National AIDS Control Program (PNPEC) contract to Enda Sant{\'e}, an organization based in Senegal, and subcontracted for technical assistance to Johns Hopkins University. Abhirup Datta{\textquoteright}s effort for methods development was supported by Project SOAR (Supporting Operational AIDS Research), Cooperative Agreement AID-OAA-A-14-00060, is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the President{\textquoteright}s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). However, the contents of this article are the sole responsibility of Project SOAR, the Population Council, and the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of PEPFAR, USAID, or the United States Government. Stefan Baral{\textquoteright}s effort was supported from the Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research, an NIH funded program (P30AI094189), which is supported by the following NIH Cofunding and Participating Institutes and Centers: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Cancer Institute (NCI), National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), National Institute on Aging (NIA), Fogarty International Center (FIC), National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS), National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK), and the Office of AIDS Research (OAR). Le Bao and Stefan Baral{\textquoteright}s efforts for this publication were supported by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health under award number R01AI136664. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. We thank the participants of these studies and community groups that support them for engaging in the study. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019, {\textcopyright} 2019 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.",
year = "2019",
month = jan,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1080/2330443X.2018.1546634",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "6",
pages = "1--13",
journal = "Statistics and Public Policy",
issn = "2330-443X",
publisher = "Taylor and Francis Inc.",
number = "1",
}