Bayesian modelling of the dynamics of hepatotoxicity

Q. Li, X. Shen, D. K. Pearl

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Hepatotoxicity (liver damage) is a common problem in drug treatment trials but is observed only indirectly through biomarkers measured in the blood. This creates the need to infer an individual's unobserved liver function dynamically using blood tests and other patient baseline characteristics. Major statistical challenges include high dimensionality, irregular time observation points over patients, presence of missing observations, and noise involved in measurement and biological processes. This article introduces a class of multivariate Bayesian dynamic stochastic models for detecting and forecasting changes in an individual's liver function in two situations: without and with drug. These models separate measurement error from variation inherent in a biological process, and describe the underlying process of liver detoxification, whereby, drug affects liver function which in turn induces changes in observed analytes. We apply the Bayesian methodology to make an inference. A clinical toxicity study is examined, together with simulated data. The results suggest that changes in observed analytes can be captured by the proposed models.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3591-3611
Number of pages21
JournalStatistics in Medicine
Volume26
Issue number19
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 30 2007

Fingerprint

Bayesian Modeling
Liver
Biological Phenomena
Drugs
Blood
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Missing Observations
Measurement Error Model
Biomarkers
Hematologic Tests
Toxicity
Dimensionality
Stochastic Model
Noise
Forecasting
Irregular
Baseline
Dynamic Model
Damage
Observation

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Epidemiology
  • Statistics and Probability

Cite this

Li, Q. ; Shen, X. ; Pearl, D. K. / Bayesian modelling of the dynamics of hepatotoxicity. In: Statistics in Medicine. 2007 ; Vol. 26, No. 19. pp. 3591-3611.
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Bayesian modelling of the dynamics of hepatotoxicity. / Li, Q.; Shen, X.; Pearl, D. K.

In: Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 26, No. 19, 30.08.2007, p. 3591-3611.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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