Background & Aims: Up to 30% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) require surgery within the first 5 years from diagnosis. We investigated the recent risk of bowel surgery in an inception cohort of pediatric patients with CD and whether early use of biologics (tumor necrosis factor antagonists) alters later disease course. Methods: We collected data from the Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease Collaborative Research Group registry on 1442 children (age, ≤16 y) diagnosed with CD from January 2002 through December 2014. Data were collected at diagnosis, 30 days following diagnosis, and then quarterly and during hospitalizations for up to 12 years. Our primary aim was to determine the 10-year risk for surgery in children with CD. Our secondary aim was to determine whether early use of biologics (<3 mo of diagnosis) affected risk of disease progression. Results: The 10-year risk of first bowel surgery was 26%. The 5-year risk of bowel surgery did not change from 2002 through 2014, and remained between 13% and 14%. Most surgeries occurred within 3 years from diagnosis. The only predictor of surgery was disease behavior at diagnosis. CD with inflammatory behavior had the lowest risk of surgery compared to stricturing disease, penetrating disease, or both. We associated slowing of disease progression to stricturing or penetrating disease (but not surgery) with early use of biologics, but this effect only became evident after 5 years of disease. Our results indicate that biologics slow disease progression over time (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76–0.95). Conclusions: In an analysis of data from a registry of pediatric patients with CD, we found that among those with significant and progressing disease at or shortly after presentation, early surgery is difficult to prevent, even with early use of biologics. Early use of biologics (<3 mo of diagnosis) can delay later disease progression to stricturing and/or penetrating disease, but this affect could become evident only years after initial management decisions are made.
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