Calculated and observed climate change in the thermosphere, and a prediction for solar cycle 24

Liying Qian, Raymond G. Roble, Stanley C. Solomon, Timothy J. Kane

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

52 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The long-term change of thermospheric neutral density has been investigated using satellite drag measurements and through sensitivity studies using upper atmosphere general circulation models. The magnitude of the change has been quantified in both approaches, and the source of the secular change attributed to the concentration changes of greenhouse gases. In this study, we use CO2 concentration measured at Mauna Loa Observatory and solar variation based on a proxy model to calculate the secular change of thermosphere neutral density for the last three decades, using a global mean upper atmosphere model. Our results show that the average density decrease at 400 km from 1970 to 2000 is 1.7% per decade. To quantify the impact of solar activity on the secular change of neutral density, we also calculated the long-term density change under solar minimum and solar maximum conditions for the same time period. The average trends at 350 km and 450 km are 2.2% per decade and 2.9% per decade for solar minimum conditions, while at solar maximum, they are 0.7% per decade and 0.8% per decade, respectively. These model results are compared to estimates of thermosphere density change derived from satellite drag observations, showing good agreement. In addition, based on a recent forecast of the intensity of solar cycle 24, we predict that the long-term change of thermospheric neutral density from 2006 to the end of solar cycle 24 will be ∼2.7% per decade at 400 km.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberL23705
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume33
Issue number23
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 16 2006

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thermosphere
climate change
solar cycles
solar cycle
prediction
predictions
satellite drag
upper atmosphere
long-term change
drag
drag measurement
greenhouses
solar activity
forecasting
general circulation model
observatories
greenhouse gas
observatory
trends
sensitivity

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Cite this

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title = "Calculated and observed climate change in the thermosphere, and a prediction for solar cycle 24",
abstract = "The long-term change of thermospheric neutral density has been investigated using satellite drag measurements and through sensitivity studies using upper atmosphere general circulation models. The magnitude of the change has been quantified in both approaches, and the source of the secular change attributed to the concentration changes of greenhouse gases. In this study, we use CO2 concentration measured at Mauna Loa Observatory and solar variation based on a proxy model to calculate the secular change of thermosphere neutral density for the last three decades, using a global mean upper atmosphere model. Our results show that the average density decrease at 400 km from 1970 to 2000 is 1.7{\%} per decade. To quantify the impact of solar activity on the secular change of neutral density, we also calculated the long-term density change under solar minimum and solar maximum conditions for the same time period. The average trends at 350 km and 450 km are 2.2{\%} per decade and 2.9{\%} per decade for solar minimum conditions, while at solar maximum, they are 0.7{\%} per decade and 0.8{\%} per decade, respectively. These model results are compared to estimates of thermosphere density change derived from satellite drag observations, showing good agreement. In addition, based on a recent forecast of the intensity of solar cycle 24, we predict that the long-term change of thermospheric neutral density from 2006 to the end of solar cycle 24 will be ∼2.7{\%} per decade at 400 km.",
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Calculated and observed climate change in the thermosphere, and a prediction for solar cycle 24. / Qian, Liying; Roble, Raymond G.; Solomon, Stanley C.; Kane, Timothy J.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 23, L23705, 16.12.2006.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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