Abstract
Inference of CO2 surface fluxes using atmospheric CO2 observations in atmospheric inversions depends critically on accurate representation of atmospheric transport. Here we characterize regional-scale CO2 transport uncertainties due to uncertainties in meteorological fields using a mesoscale atmospheric model and an ensemble of simulations with flow-dependent transport errors. During a 1-month summer period over North America, transport uncertainties yield an ensemble spread in instantaneous CO2 at 100 m above ground level comparable to the CO2 uncertainties resulting from 48% relative uncertainty in 3-hourly natural CO2 fluxes. Temporal averaging reduces transport uncertainties but increases the influence of CO2 uncertainties from the lateral boundaries. The influence of CO2 background uncertainties is especially large for column-averaged CO2. These results suggest that transport errors and CO2 background errors limit regional atmospheric inversions at two distinct timescales and that the error characteristics of transport and background errors should guide the design of regional inversion systems.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 4049-4058 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Volume | 46 |
| Issue number | 7 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Apr 16 2019 |
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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Geophysics
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
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Characterization of Regional-Scale CO2 Transport Uncertainties in an Ensemble with Flow-Dependent Transport Errors. / Chen, Hans W.; Zhang, Fuqing; Lauvaux, Thomas; Davis, Kenneth James; Feng, Sha; Butler, Martha Peirce; Alley, Richard B.
In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, No. 7, 16.04.2019, p. 4049-4058.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - Characterization of Regional-Scale CO2 Transport Uncertainties in an Ensemble with Flow-Dependent Transport Errors
AU - Chen, Hans W.
AU - Zhang, Fuqing
AU - Lauvaux, Thomas
AU - Davis, Kenneth James
AU - Feng, Sha
AU - Butler, Martha Peirce
AU - Alley, Richard B.
PY - 2019/4/16
Y1 - 2019/4/16
N2 - Inference of CO2 surface fluxes using atmospheric CO2 observations in atmospheric inversions depends critically on accurate representation of atmospheric transport. Here we characterize regional-scale CO2 transport uncertainties due to uncertainties in meteorological fields using a mesoscale atmospheric model and an ensemble of simulations with flow-dependent transport errors. During a 1-month summer period over North America, transport uncertainties yield an ensemble spread in instantaneous CO2 at 100 m above ground level comparable to the CO2 uncertainties resulting from 48% relative uncertainty in 3-hourly natural CO2 fluxes. Temporal averaging reduces transport uncertainties but increases the influence of CO2 uncertainties from the lateral boundaries. The influence of CO2 background uncertainties is especially large for column-averaged CO2. These results suggest that transport errors and CO2 background errors limit regional atmospheric inversions at two distinct timescales and that the error characteristics of transport and background errors should guide the design of regional inversion systems.
AB - Inference of CO2 surface fluxes using atmospheric CO2 observations in atmospheric inversions depends critically on accurate representation of atmospheric transport. Here we characterize regional-scale CO2 transport uncertainties due to uncertainties in meteorological fields using a mesoscale atmospheric model and an ensemble of simulations with flow-dependent transport errors. During a 1-month summer period over North America, transport uncertainties yield an ensemble spread in instantaneous CO2 at 100 m above ground level comparable to the CO2 uncertainties resulting from 48% relative uncertainty in 3-hourly natural CO2 fluxes. Temporal averaging reduces transport uncertainties but increases the influence of CO2 uncertainties from the lateral boundaries. The influence of CO2 background uncertainties is especially large for column-averaged CO2. These results suggest that transport errors and CO2 background errors limit regional atmospheric inversions at two distinct timescales and that the error characteristics of transport and background errors should guide the design of regional inversion systems.
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U2 - 10.1029/2018GL081341
DO - 10.1029/2018GL081341
M3 - Article
VL - 46
SP - 4049
EP - 4058
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
SN - 0094-8276
IS - 7
ER -