CINES: Explore Citation Network and Event Sequences for Citation Forecasting

Fang He, Wang Chien Lee, Tao Yang Fu, Zhen Lei

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Citations of scientific papers and patents reveal the knowledge flow and usually serve as the metric for evaluating their novelty and impacts in the field. Citation Forecasting thus has various applications in the real world. Existing works on citation forecasting typically exploit the sequential properties of citation events, without exploring the citation network. In this paper, we propose to explore both the citation network and the related citation event sequences which provide valuable information for future citation forecasting. We propose a novel \em Citation Network and Event Sequence (CINES) Model to encode signals in the citation network and related citation event sequences into various types of embeddings for decoding to the arrivals of future citations. Moreover, we propose atemporal network attention and three alternative designs of \em bidirectional feature propagation to aggregate the retrospective and prospective aspects of publications in the citation network, coupled with the citation event sequence embeddings learned by a \em two-level attention mechanism for the citation forecasting. We evaluate our models and baselines on both a U.S. patent dataset and a DBLP dataset. Experimental results show that our models outperform the state-of-the-art methods, i.e., RMTPP, CYAN-RNN, Intensity-RNN, and PC-RNN, reducing the forecasting error by 37.76% - 75.32%.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationSIGIR 2021 - Proceedings of the 44th International ACM SIGIR Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval
PublisherAssociation for Computing Machinery, Inc
Pages798-807
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9781450380379
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 11 2021
Event44th International ACM SIGIR Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval, SIGIR 2021 - Virtual, Online, Canada
Duration: Jul 11 2021Jul 15 2021

Publication series

NameSIGIR 2021 - Proceedings of the 44th International ACM SIGIR Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval

Conference

Conference44th International ACM SIGIR Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval, SIGIR 2021
Country/TerritoryCanada
CityVirtual, Online
Period7/11/217/15/21

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Software
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design
  • Information Systems

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