Climate and demography of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus off northern California: Implications for population change

Derek E. Lee, Nadav Nur, William J. Sydeman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

57 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We performed demographic analyses on Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus, a zooplanktivorous seabird inhabiting the variable California Current System, to understand how temporal environmental variability influences population dynamics. We used capture-recapture data from 1986 to 2002 to rank models of interannual variation in survival, breeding propensity, breeding success, and recruitment. All demographic parameters exhibited temporal variability. Interannual variation in survival was best modelled as a nonlinear function of the winter Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Breeding propensity was best modelled as a threshold function of local sea surface temperature. Breeding success and recruitment were best modelled with yeardependent annual variation. Changes in the SOI force El Niño/La Niña events, which in turn alter prey availability to seabirds in this system. Demographic responses varied during El Niños/La Niñas. Survival diminished substantially during the 1997-98 El Niño event, while breeding propensity was affected during both the 1992 and 1998 El Niños. Breeding success was reduced during the 1992, 1993, and 1998 El Niños, but was unusually high in 2002. Recruitment was higher at the beginning and end of this time-series. While demographic responses varied interannually, parameter values covaried in a positive fashion, a situation conducive to rapid population change. During the 11 years study period, the Farallon auklet breeding population declined at 6.05 ± 0.80% (SE) per year, a cumulative decline of 49.7%. This study demonstrates how climate variability has influenced key demographic processes for this diminished marine bird population.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)337-347
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Animal Ecology
Volume76
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1 2007

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demography
annual variation
reproductive success
Southern Oscillation
breeding
seabird
climate
demographic statistics
prey availability
breeding population
seabirds
population dynamics
sea surface temperature
oscillation
time series
bird
winter
surface temperature
time series analysis
parameter

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Animal Science and Zoology

Cite this

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title = "Climate and demography of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus off northern California: Implications for population change",
abstract = "We performed demographic analyses on Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus, a zooplanktivorous seabird inhabiting the variable California Current System, to understand how temporal environmental variability influences population dynamics. We used capture-recapture data from 1986 to 2002 to rank models of interannual variation in survival, breeding propensity, breeding success, and recruitment. All demographic parameters exhibited temporal variability. Interannual variation in survival was best modelled as a nonlinear function of the winter Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Breeding propensity was best modelled as a threshold function of local sea surface temperature. Breeding success and recruitment were best modelled with yeardependent annual variation. Changes in the SOI force El Ni{\~n}o/La Ni{\~n}a events, which in turn alter prey availability to seabirds in this system. Demographic responses varied during El Ni{\~n}os/La Ni{\~n}as. Survival diminished substantially during the 1997-98 El Ni{\~n}o event, while breeding propensity was affected during both the 1992 and 1998 El Ni{\~n}os. Breeding success was reduced during the 1992, 1993, and 1998 El Ni{\~n}os, but was unusually high in 2002. Recruitment was higher at the beginning and end of this time-series. While demographic responses varied interannually, parameter values covaried in a positive fashion, a situation conducive to rapid population change. During the 11 years study period, the Farallon auklet breeding population declined at 6.05 ± 0.80{\%} (SE) per year, a cumulative decline of 49.7{\%}. This study demonstrates how climate variability has influenced key demographic processes for this diminished marine bird population.",
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Climate and demography of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus off northern California : Implications for population change. / Lee, Derek E.; Nur, Nadav; Sydeman, William J.

In: Journal of Animal Ecology, Vol. 76, No. 2, 01.03.2007, p. 337-347.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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