Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

Xavier Rodó, Mercedes Pascual, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Alexander Gershunov, Dáithí A. Stone, Filippo Giorgi, Peter J. Hudson, James Kinter, Miquel Àngel Rodríguez-Arias, Nils Ch Stenseth, David Alonso, Javier García-Serrano, Andrew P. Dobson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

50 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)625-640
Number of pages16
JournalClimatic Change
Volume118
Issue number3-4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1 2013

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infectious disease
climate change
climate prediction
climate
prediction
disease transmission
early warning system
immunity
public health
climate modeling
need

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Rodó, X., Pascual, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Gershunov, A., Stone, D. A., Giorgi, F., ... Dobson, A. P. (2013). Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction? Climatic Change, 118(3-4), 625-640. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0744-1
Rodó, Xavier ; Pascual, Mercedes ; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. ; Gershunov, Alexander ; Stone, Dáithí A. ; Giorgi, Filippo ; Hudson, Peter J. ; Kinter, James ; Rodríguez-Arias, Miquel Àngel ; Stenseth, Nils Ch ; Alonso, David ; García-Serrano, Javier ; Dobson, Andrew P. / Climate change and infectious diseases : Can we meet the needs for better prediction?. In: Climatic Change. 2013 ; Vol. 118, No. 3-4. pp. 625-640.
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Rodó, X, Pascual, M, Doblas-Reyes, FJ, Gershunov, A, Stone, DA, Giorgi, F, Hudson, PJ, Kinter, J, Rodríguez-Arias, MÀ, Stenseth, NC, Alonso, D, García-Serrano, J & Dobson, AP 2013, 'Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?', Climatic Change, vol. 118, no. 3-4, pp. 625-640. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0744-1

Climate change and infectious diseases : Can we meet the needs for better prediction? / Rodó, Xavier; Pascual, Mercedes; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Gershunov, Alexander; Stone, Dáithí A.; Giorgi, Filippo; Hudson, Peter J.; Kinter, James; Rodríguez-Arias, Miquel Àngel; Stenseth, Nils Ch; Alonso, David; García-Serrano, Javier; Dobson, Andrew P.

In: Climatic Change, Vol. 118, No. 3-4, 01.06.2013, p. 625-640.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Rodó X, Pascual M, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Gershunov A, Stone DA, Giorgi F et al. Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction? Climatic Change. 2013 Jun 1;118(3-4):625-640. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0744-1