@article{4dd72c8ad257401898427956646453da,
title = "Climate change assessments: Confidence, probability, and decision",
abstract = "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in its periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC{\textquoteright}s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.",
author = "Richard Bradley and Casey Helgeson and Brian Hill",
note = "Funding Information: We would like to thank participants at the Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science, the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, the Centre for Analysis of Time Series, and at conferences in Helsinki (CLMPS), London (London School of Economics), and Paris (Paris IV) for stimulating discussion and helpful feedback. Bradley and Helgeson gratefully acknowledge support from the Arts and Humanities Research Council grant Managing Severe Uncertainty (AH/J006033/1). Hill gratefully acknowledges support from the French National Research Agency (ANR) DUSUCA (ANR-14-CE29-0003-01). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2017 by the Philosophy of Science Association. All rights reserved.",
year = "2017",
doi = "10.1086/692145",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "84",
pages = "500--522",
journal = "Philosophy of Science",
issn = "0031-8248",
publisher = "University of Chicago",
number = "3",
}