Climate change assessments: Confidence, probability, and decision

Richard Bradley, Casey Helgeson, Brian Hill

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in its periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)500-522
Number of pages23
JournalPhilosophy of Science
Volume84
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2017

Fingerprint

Climate Change
Confidence
Uncertainty
Decision Making

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • History
  • Philosophy
  • History and Philosophy of Science

Cite this

Bradley, Richard ; Helgeson, Casey ; Hill, Brian. / Climate change assessments : Confidence, probability, and decision. In: Philosophy of Science. 2017 ; Vol. 84, No. 3. pp. 500-522.
@article{4dd72c8ad257401898427956646453da,
title = "Climate change assessments: Confidence, probability, and decision",
abstract = "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in its periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.",
author = "Richard Bradley and Casey Helgeson and Brian Hill",
year = "2017",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1086/692145",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "84",
pages = "500--522",
journal = "Philosophy of Science",
issn = "0031-8248",
publisher = "University of Chicago",
number = "3",

}

Climate change assessments : Confidence, probability, and decision. / Bradley, Richard; Helgeson, Casey; Hill, Brian.

In: Philosophy of Science, Vol. 84, No. 3, 01.01.2017, p. 500-522.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate change assessments

T2 - Confidence, probability, and decision

AU - Bradley, Richard

AU - Helgeson, Casey

AU - Hill, Brian

PY - 2017/1/1

Y1 - 2017/1/1

N2 - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in its periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.

AB - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in its periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85020517109&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85020517109&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1086/692145

DO - 10.1086/692145

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85020517109

VL - 84

SP - 500

EP - 522

JO - Philosophy of Science

JF - Philosophy of Science

SN - 0031-8248

IS - 3

ER -