Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue

Ruiyun Li, Lei Xu, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Keke Liu, Tie Song, Aifang Chen, Bing Xu, Qiyong Liu, Nils C. Stenseth

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Abstract

Dengue is a climate-sensitive mosquito-borne disease with increasing geographic extent and human incidence. Although the climate–epidemic association and outbreak risks have been assessed using both statistical and mathematical models, local mosquito population dynamics have not been incorporated in a unified predictive framework. Here, we use mosquito surveillance data from 2005 to 2015 in China to integrate a generalized additive model of mosquito dynamics with a susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) compartmental model of viral transmission to establish a predictive model linking climate and seasonal dengue risk. The findings illustrate that spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue are predictable from the local vector dynamics, which in turn, can be predicted by climate conditions. On the basis of the similar epidemiology and transmission cycles, we believe that this integrated approach and the finer mosquito surveillance data provide a framework that can be extended to predict outbreak risk of other mosquito-borne diseases as well as project dengue risk maps for future climate scenarios.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3624-3629
Number of pages6
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume116
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 26 2019

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Li, Ruiyun ; Xu, Lei ; Bjørnstad, Ottar N. ; Liu, Keke ; Song, Tie ; Chen, Aifang ; Xu, Bing ; Liu, Qiyong ; Stenseth, Nils C. / Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2019 ; Vol. 116, No. 9. pp. 3624-3629.