Climate simulations of major estuarine watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic region of the US

R. Najjar, L. Patterson, S. Graham

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

52 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To better understand the implications of anthropogenic climate change for three major Mid-Atlantic estuaries (the Chesapeake Bay, the Delaware Bay, and the Hudson River Estuary), we analyzed the regional output of seven global climate models. The simulation given by the average of the models was generally superior to individual models, which differed dramatically in their ability to simulate twentieth-century climate. The model average had little bias in its mean temperature and precipitation and, except in the Lower Chesapeake Watershed, was able to capture the twentieth-century temperature trend. Weaknesses in the model average were too much seasonality in temperature and precipitation, a shift in precipitation's summer maximum to spring and winter minimum to fall, interannual variability that was too high in temperature and too low in precipitation, and inability to capture the twentieth-century precipitation increase. There is some evidence that model deficiencies are related to land surface parameterizations. All models warmed over the twenty-first century under the six greenhouse gas scenarios considered, with an increase of 4.7 ± 2.0°C (model mean ± 1 standard deviation) for the A2 scenario (a medium-high emission scenario) over the Chesapeake Bay Watershed by 2070-2099. Precipitation projections had much weaker consensus, with a corresponding increase of 3 ± 12% for the A2 scenario, but in winter there was a more consistent increase of 8 ± 7%. The projected climate averaged over the four best-performing models was significantly cooler and wetter than the projected seven-model-average climate. Precipitation projections were within the range of interannual variability but temperature projections were not. The implied research needs are for improvements in precipitation projections and a better understanding of the impacts of warming on streamflow and estuarine ecology and biogeochemistry.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)139-168
Number of pages30
JournalClimatic Change
Volume95
Issue number1-2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1 2009

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watershed
climate
simulation
twentieth century
temperature
climate modeling
estuary
winter
twenty first century
biogeochemistry
seasonality
streamflow
global climate
land surface
parameterization
greenhouse gas
warming
ecology
climate change
summer

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Najjar, R. ; Patterson, L. ; Graham, S. / Climate simulations of major estuarine watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic region of the US. In: Climatic Change. 2009 ; Vol. 95, No. 1-2. pp. 139-168.
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Climate simulations of major estuarine watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic region of the US. / Najjar, R.; Patterson, L.; Graham, S.

In: Climatic Change, Vol. 95, No. 1-2, 01.07.2009, p. 139-168.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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