Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment

Casey Helgeson, Richard Bradley, Brian Hill

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our proposal meshes with current and proposed practice in IPCC uncertainty assessment.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)517-525
Number of pages9
JournalClimatic Change
Volume149
Issue number3-4
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 1 2018

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Atmospheric Science

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