Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake

Gavin P. Hayes, Matthew W. Herman, William D. Barnhart, Kevin Patrick Furlong, Sebástian Riquelme, Harley M. Benz, Eric Bergman, Sergio Barrientos, Paul S. Earle, Sergey Samsonov

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

107 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The seismic gap theory1 identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile3-6, which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M∼8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)295-298
Number of pages4
JournalNature
Volume512
Issue number7514
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 21 2014

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Earthquakes
Chile
Sequence Analysis
Rupture

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

Cite this

Hayes, G. P., Herman, M. W., Barnhart, W. D., Furlong, K. P., Riquelme, S., Benz, H. M., ... Samsonov, S. (2014). Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake. Nature, 512(7514), 295-298. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13677
Hayes, Gavin P. ; Herman, Matthew W. ; Barnhart, William D. ; Furlong, Kevin Patrick ; Riquelme, Sebástian ; Benz, Harley M. ; Bergman, Eric ; Barrientos, Sergio ; Earle, Paul S. ; Samsonov, Sergey. / Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake. In: Nature. 2014 ; Vol. 512, No. 7514. pp. 295-298.
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Hayes, GP, Herman, MW, Barnhart, WD, Furlong, KP, Riquelme, S, Benz, HM, Bergman, E, Barrientos, S, Earle, PS & Samsonov, S 2014, 'Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake', Nature, vol. 512, no. 7514, pp. 295-298. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13677

Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake. / Hayes, Gavin P.; Herman, Matthew W.; Barnhart, William D.; Furlong, Kevin Patrick; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S.; Samsonov, Sergey.

In: Nature, Vol. 512, No. 7514, 21.08.2014, p. 295-298.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Hayes GP, Herman MW, Barnhart WD, Furlong KP, Riquelme S, Benz HM et al. Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake. Nature. 2014 Aug 21;512(7514):295-298. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13677