Convective-scale warn-on-forecast system: A vision for 2020

David J. Stensrud, Xue Ming, Louis J. Wicker, Kevin E. Kelleher, Michael P. Foster, Joseph T. Schaefer, Russell S. Schneider, Stanley G. Benjamin, Stephen S. Weygandt, John T. Ferree, Jason P. Tuell

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194 Scopus citations

Abstract

Warning about convective-scale hazards are based on observations, and it is essential to develop warning methods in which numerical model forecasts play a larger role. High resolution numerical weather prediction models can potentially provide warning information on the future evolution of storms and their internal structure, thereby increasing convective-scale warning lead times. It is essential that the model be started with a very accurate representation of ongoing convection to obtain the necessary one-to-one correspondence between model-predicted and observed thunderstorms. The introduction of the national network of Doppler radars in 1990s and the ability to transmit, composite, and merge all the radar data in near-real time allow for the assimilation of in-storm Doppler radar reflectivity and radial velocity observations into convective-scale forecast models. A warn-on-forecast system is predicted that assimilates observations of convective storms and their environments into an ensemble of convective-scale numerical weather prediction models.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1487-1499
Number of pages13
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume90
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 26 2009

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Stensrud, D. J., Ming, X., Wicker, L. J., Kelleher, K. E., Foster, M. P., Schaefer, J. T., ... Tuell, J. P. (2009). Convective-scale warn-on-forecast system: A vision for 2020. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(10), 1487-1499. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2795.1