Convex error growth patterns in a global weather model

John Harlim, Michael Oczkowski, James A. Yorke, Eugenia Kalnay, Brian R. Hunt

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We investigate the error growth, that is, the growth in the distance E between two typical solutions of a weather model. Typically E grows until it reaches a saturation value Es. We find two distinct broad log-linear regimes, one for E below 2% of Es and the other for E above. In each, log (E/Es) grows as if satisfying a linear differential equation. When plotting dlog (E)/dt vs log(E), the graph is convex. We argue this behavior is quite different from other dynamics problems with saturation values, which yield concave graphs.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number228501
JournalPhysical Review Letters
Issue number22
Publication statusPublished - Jun 10 2005


All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

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