Cost prediction model of commercial aircraft based on grey incidence weight

Ying Cao, Sifeng Liu, Naiming Xie, Zhigeng Fang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

This study concentrates on the cost prediction of commercial aircraft which is a crucial factor influencing its research and manufacturing. To tackle the situation that the cost-related information is difficult to get in the designing stage, a cost prediction and simulation model of commercial aircraft called GI-GM(0,N) is constructed based on grey incidence weight. A host of cost values of aircraft related parameters are predicted, and the weight of each cost value is calculated according to their comprehensive grey incidence with the cost, then their weighted summation is calculated as the comprehensive cost of the aircraft. Compared with traditional multi-factor grey prediction models, GI-GM(0,N) model avoids the forecast precision decreasing caused by multi-collinearity during the multiple linear regression based on 1-AGO sequences. In a case study, the cost of a commercial aircraft, short for X jet, is forecasted by GI-GM(0,N). The simulation results confirm a satisfactory forecast result of X jet and reveal that this model is an effective way to predict cost of commercial aircraft. It is expected that GI-GM(0,N) can be applied as an ideal method in simulation and forecast with cross-sectional data in small-sample.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, GSIS'11 - Joint with the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and Systems
Pages116-120
Number of pages5
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 7 2011
EventJoint Conference of the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and Systems and 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, GSIS'11 - Nanjing, China
Duration: Sep 15 2011Sep 18 2011

Publication series

NameProceedings of 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, GSIS'11 - Joint with the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and Systems

Other

OtherJoint Conference of the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and Systems and 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, GSIS'11
CountryChina
CityNanjing
Period9/15/119/18/11

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Software

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  • Cite this

    Cao, Y., Liu, S., Xie, N., & Fang, Z. (2011). Cost prediction model of commercial aircraft based on grey incidence weight. In Proceedings of 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, GSIS'11 - Joint with the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and Systems (pp. 116-120). [6044010] (Proceedings of 2011 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, GSIS'11 - Joint with the 15th WOSC International Congress on Cybernetics and Systems). https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2011.6044010