Coupling the driving forces of urban CO2 emission in Shanghai with logarithmic mean Divisia index method and Granger causality inference

This paper investigates the potential indicators influencing CO₂ emission in Shanghai during 1995–2017 by a combined method of logarithmic mean Divisia index method (LMDI) and Granger causality test for the purpose of strengthening the sustainability in dynamic perspectives. Firstly, we quantify the contributions of potentially influential factors of CO₂ emission, and then a further analysis of different relationships between CO₂ emission and the mainly potential factors are identified. The results show that the motor vehicle amount, the disposable personal income, the carbon intensity, and the urbanization rate are the top four driving forces of CO₂ emission. The result of Granger causality test indicates that the motor vehicle amount has a bidirectional Granger causality relationship with CO₂ emission in different lags, while the urbanization rate, per motor vehicle secondary industry, per secondary industry population, per residents’ income GDP support coefficient and the carbon intensity have a one-way Granger causality relationship with CO₂ emission. Interestingly, it is found that the policy implementation or main events are closely related to the influential factors of CO₂ emission. Thus, policy makers should not only continue to implement current related policies of reducing CO₂ emission but also pay attention to the effect of great events of urban development.