Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems

Guillermo Podestá, Federico Bert, Balaji Rajagopalan, Somkiat Apipattanavis, Carlos Laciana, Elke Weber, William Easterling, Richard Katz, David Letson, Angel Menendez

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

29 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Pampas of Argentina have shown some of the most consistently increasing trends in precipitation during the 20th century. The rainfall increase has partly contributed to a significant expansion of agricultural area, particularly in climatically marginal regions of the Pampas. However, it is unclear if current agricultural production systems, which evolved partly in response to enhanced climate conditions, may remain viable if (as entirely possible) climate reverts to a drier epoch. We assess the potential impacts of a plausible decreasing trend in precipitation on the economic sustain-ability of 2 contrasting agricultural systems in the Pampas: Pergamino, in the most productive subre-gion of the Pampas, and Pilar, in the northern, semi-arid margin of the region. Also, we explore the scope for adaptation to changing climate. In the case where there is no adaptation, if precipitation decreases, as is plausible, impacts may be quite different between locations: whereas in Pergamino crop economic returns would not change noticeably, the more marginal Pilar would experience a marked decrease in profits and an increase in production risks. However, potential negative impacts might be mitigated, in part, if farmers adapt their agronomic management using current available technology or know-how.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)199-210
Number of pages12
JournalClimate Research
Volume40
Issue number2-3
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2009

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farming system
Economics
Precipitation (meteorology)
climate
climate conditions
economics
production system
agricultural production
Crops
Rain
Profitability
agricultural land
rainfall
crop
trend
profit

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Podestá, G., Bert, F., Rajagopalan, B., Apipattanavis, S., Laciana, C., Weber, E., ... Menendez, A. (2009). Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems. Climate Research, 40(2-3), 199-210. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00807
Podestá, Guillermo ; Bert, Federico ; Rajagopalan, Balaji ; Apipattanavis, Somkiat ; Laciana, Carlos ; Weber, Elke ; Easterling, William ; Katz, Richard ; Letson, David ; Menendez, Angel. / Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas : regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems. In: Climate Research. 2009 ; Vol. 40, No. 2-3. pp. 199-210.
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Podestá, G, Bert, F, Rajagopalan, B, Apipattanavis, S, Laciana, C, Weber, E, Easterling, W, Katz, R, Letson, D & Menendez, A 2009, 'Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems', Climate Research, vol. 40, no. 2-3, pp. 199-210. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00807

Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas : regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems. / Podestá, Guillermo; Bert, Federico; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Apipattanavis, Somkiat; Laciana, Carlos; Weber, Elke; Easterling, William; Katz, Richard; Letson, David; Menendez, Angel.

In: Climate Research, Vol. 40, No. 2-3, 01.12.2009, p. 199-210.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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