Decisão em condições de incerteza meteorológica e proteção de infraestruturas no centro de lançamento de alcântara

Translated title of the contribution: Decision under weather uncertainty and infrastructure protection for alcantara launch center

Amaury Caruzzo, Mischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain, Gilberto Fisch, George Young, Christopher Hanlon, Johannes Verlinde

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Decision-making using weather information is often a complex and high impact process, and in some situations, can disturb the functioning of technological facilities. In this sense, the aim of this paper is to present a decision support approach for infrastructure protection under weather uncertainty at the Alcântara Launch Center, in Brazil. From an operational demand, a weather index was developed to identify the decision maker’s attitude about the three characteristics of meteorological information: a) weather forecast probability; b) lead time of the information; c) value of a meteorological variable. As a case study, we analyzed a real decision-making problem for the protection of an aerospace vehicle and integration tower in the Brazilian space center. Through the development of an index with the users, it was concluded that for low probabilities (< 20%) or extended lead time (> 24 h), the group of users do not use weather information to make decisions, even with a prognosis of extreme conditions. The quantitative results showed that the decision model managed to incorporate the attitude of non-meteorologist users regarding the handling of uncertainty in weather forecasts.

Original languagePortuguese
Pages (from-to)141-155
Number of pages15
JournalRevista Brasileira de Meteorologia
Volume32
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2017

Fingerprint

infrastructure
weather
decision making
decision
forecast
index

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Caruzzo, Amaury ; Belderrain, Mischel Carmen Neyra ; Fisch, Gilberto ; Young, George ; Hanlon, Christopher ; Verlinde, Johannes. / Decisão em condições de incerteza meteorológica e proteção de infraestruturas no centro de lançamento de alcântara. In: Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia. 2017 ; Vol. 32, No. 1. pp. 141-155.
@article{12360a6cfe6045cbb041ed63bff8f3e6,
title = "Decis{\~a}o em condi{\cc}{\~o}es de incerteza meteorol{\'o}gica e prote{\cc}{\~a}o de infraestruturas no centro de lan{\cc}amento de alc{\^a}ntara",
abstract = "Decision-making using weather information is often a complex and high impact process, and in some situations, can disturb the functioning of technological facilities. In this sense, the aim of this paper is to present a decision support approach for infrastructure protection under weather uncertainty at the Alc{\^a}ntara Launch Center, in Brazil. From an operational demand, a weather index was developed to identify the decision maker’s attitude about the three characteristics of meteorological information: a) weather forecast probability; b) lead time of the information; c) value of a meteorological variable. As a case study, we analyzed a real decision-making problem for the protection of an aerospace vehicle and integration tower in the Brazilian space center. Through the development of an index with the users, it was concluded that for low probabilities (< 20{\%}) or extended lead time (> 24 h), the group of users do not use weather information to make decisions, even with a prognosis of extreme conditions. The quantitative results showed that the decision model managed to incorporate the attitude of non-meteorologist users regarding the handling of uncertainty in weather forecasts.",
author = "Amaury Caruzzo and Belderrain, {Mischel Carmen Neyra} and Gilberto Fisch and George Young and Christopher Hanlon and Johannes Verlinde",
year = "2017",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1590/0102-778632120160045",
language = "Portuguese",
volume = "32",
pages = "141--155",
journal = "Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia",
issn = "0102-7786",
publisher = "Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia",
number = "1",

}

Decisão em condições de incerteza meteorológica e proteção de infraestruturas no centro de lançamento de alcântara. / Caruzzo, Amaury; Belderrain, Mischel Carmen Neyra; Fisch, Gilberto; Young, George; Hanlon, Christopher; Verlinde, Johannes.

In: Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, Vol. 32, No. 1, 01.01.2017, p. 141-155.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Decisão em condições de incerteza meteorológica e proteção de infraestruturas no centro de lançamento de alcântara

AU - Caruzzo, Amaury

AU - Belderrain, Mischel Carmen Neyra

AU - Fisch, Gilberto

AU - Young, George

AU - Hanlon, Christopher

AU - Verlinde, Johannes

PY - 2017/1/1

Y1 - 2017/1/1

N2 - Decision-making using weather information is often a complex and high impact process, and in some situations, can disturb the functioning of technological facilities. In this sense, the aim of this paper is to present a decision support approach for infrastructure protection under weather uncertainty at the Alcântara Launch Center, in Brazil. From an operational demand, a weather index was developed to identify the decision maker’s attitude about the three characteristics of meteorological information: a) weather forecast probability; b) lead time of the information; c) value of a meteorological variable. As a case study, we analyzed a real decision-making problem for the protection of an aerospace vehicle and integration tower in the Brazilian space center. Through the development of an index with the users, it was concluded that for low probabilities (< 20%) or extended lead time (> 24 h), the group of users do not use weather information to make decisions, even with a prognosis of extreme conditions. The quantitative results showed that the decision model managed to incorporate the attitude of non-meteorologist users regarding the handling of uncertainty in weather forecasts.

AB - Decision-making using weather information is often a complex and high impact process, and in some situations, can disturb the functioning of technological facilities. In this sense, the aim of this paper is to present a decision support approach for infrastructure protection under weather uncertainty at the Alcântara Launch Center, in Brazil. From an operational demand, a weather index was developed to identify the decision maker’s attitude about the three characteristics of meteorological information: a) weather forecast probability; b) lead time of the information; c) value of a meteorological variable. As a case study, we analyzed a real decision-making problem for the protection of an aerospace vehicle and integration tower in the Brazilian space center. Through the development of an index with the users, it was concluded that for low probabilities (< 20%) or extended lead time (> 24 h), the group of users do not use weather information to make decisions, even with a prognosis of extreme conditions. The quantitative results showed that the decision model managed to incorporate the attitude of non-meteorologist users regarding the handling of uncertainty in weather forecasts.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85018546863&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85018546863&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1590/0102-778632120160045

DO - 10.1590/0102-778632120160045

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85018546863

VL - 32

SP - 141

EP - 155

JO - Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia

JF - Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia

SN - 0102-7786

IS - 1

ER -