Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics

N. B. Mantilla-Beniers, Ottar N. Bjornstad, B. T. Grenfell, P. Rohani

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Seasonal changes in the environment are known to be important drivers of population dynamics, giving rise to sustained population cycles. However, it is often difficult tomeasure the strength and shape of seasonal forces affecting populations. In recent years, statistical time-seriesmethods have been applied to the incidence records of childhood infectious diseases in an attempt to estimate seasonal variation in transmission rates, as driven by the pattern of school terms. In turn, school-term forcing was used to show how susceptible influx rates affect the interepidemic period. In this paper, we document the response of measles dynamics to distinct shifts in the parameter regime using previously unexplored records of measlesmortality from the early decades of the twentieth century. We describe temporal patterns of measles epidemics using spectral analysis techniques, and point out a marked decrease in birth rates over time. Changes in host demography alone do not, however, suffice to explain epidemiological transitions. By fitting the time-series susceptible-infected- recoveredmodel tomeaslesmortality data, we obtain estimates of seasonal transmission in different eras, and find that seasonality increased over time. This analysis supports theoretical work linking complex population dynamics and the balance between stochastic and deterministic forces as determined by the strength of seasonality.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)727-739
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume7
Issue number46
DOIs
StatePublished - May 6 2010

Fingerprint

Population dynamics
Measles
Spectrum analysis
Population Dynamics
Time series
Birth Rate
Population
Communicable Diseases
Demography
Incidence

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Biotechnology
  • Biophysics
  • Bioengineering
  • Biomaterials
  • Biochemistry
  • Biomedical Engineering

Cite this

Mantilla-Beniers, N. B. ; Bjornstad, Ottar N. ; Grenfell, B. T. ; Rohani, P. / Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics. In: Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 2010 ; Vol. 7, No. 46. pp. 727-739.
@article{94569f4e37824bfaa61d525ffeb6e611,
title = "Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics",
abstract = "Seasonal changes in the environment are known to be important drivers of population dynamics, giving rise to sustained population cycles. However, it is often difficult tomeasure the strength and shape of seasonal forces affecting populations. In recent years, statistical time-seriesmethods have been applied to the incidence records of childhood infectious diseases in an attempt to estimate seasonal variation in transmission rates, as driven by the pattern of school terms. In turn, school-term forcing was used to show how susceptible influx rates affect the interepidemic period. In this paper, we document the response of measles dynamics to distinct shifts in the parameter regime using previously unexplored records of measlesmortality from the early decades of the twentieth century. We describe temporal patterns of measles epidemics using spectral analysis techniques, and point out a marked decrease in birth rates over time. Changes in host demography alone do not, however, suffice to explain epidemiological transitions. By fitting the time-series susceptible-infected- recoveredmodel tomeaslesmortality data, we obtain estimates of seasonal transmission in different eras, and find that seasonality increased over time. This analysis supports theoretical work linking complex population dynamics and the balance between stochastic and deterministic forces as determined by the strength of seasonality.",
author = "Mantilla-Beniers, {N. B.} and Bjornstad, {Ottar N.} and Grenfell, {B. T.} and P. Rohani",
year = "2010",
month = "5",
day = "6",
doi = "10.1098/rsif.2009.0317",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "7",
pages = "727--739",
journal = "Journal of the Royal Society Interface",
issn = "1742-5689",
publisher = "Royal Society of London",
number = "46",

}

Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics. / Mantilla-Beniers, N. B.; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Grenfell, B. T.; Rohani, P.

In: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Vol. 7, No. 46, 06.05.2010, p. 727-739.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics

AU - Mantilla-Beniers, N. B.

AU - Bjornstad, Ottar N.

AU - Grenfell, B. T.

AU - Rohani, P.

PY - 2010/5/6

Y1 - 2010/5/6

N2 - Seasonal changes in the environment are known to be important drivers of population dynamics, giving rise to sustained population cycles. However, it is often difficult tomeasure the strength and shape of seasonal forces affecting populations. In recent years, statistical time-seriesmethods have been applied to the incidence records of childhood infectious diseases in an attempt to estimate seasonal variation in transmission rates, as driven by the pattern of school terms. In turn, school-term forcing was used to show how susceptible influx rates affect the interepidemic period. In this paper, we document the response of measles dynamics to distinct shifts in the parameter regime using previously unexplored records of measlesmortality from the early decades of the twentieth century. We describe temporal patterns of measles epidemics using spectral analysis techniques, and point out a marked decrease in birth rates over time. Changes in host demography alone do not, however, suffice to explain epidemiological transitions. By fitting the time-series susceptible-infected- recoveredmodel tomeaslesmortality data, we obtain estimates of seasonal transmission in different eras, and find that seasonality increased over time. This analysis supports theoretical work linking complex population dynamics and the balance between stochastic and deterministic forces as determined by the strength of seasonality.

AB - Seasonal changes in the environment are known to be important drivers of population dynamics, giving rise to sustained population cycles. However, it is often difficult tomeasure the strength and shape of seasonal forces affecting populations. In recent years, statistical time-seriesmethods have been applied to the incidence records of childhood infectious diseases in an attempt to estimate seasonal variation in transmission rates, as driven by the pattern of school terms. In turn, school-term forcing was used to show how susceptible influx rates affect the interepidemic period. In this paper, we document the response of measles dynamics to distinct shifts in the parameter regime using previously unexplored records of measlesmortality from the early decades of the twentieth century. We describe temporal patterns of measles epidemics using spectral analysis techniques, and point out a marked decrease in birth rates over time. Changes in host demography alone do not, however, suffice to explain epidemiological transitions. By fitting the time-series susceptible-infected- recoveredmodel tomeaslesmortality data, we obtain estimates of seasonal transmission in different eras, and find that seasonality increased over time. This analysis supports theoretical work linking complex population dynamics and the balance between stochastic and deterministic forces as determined by the strength of seasonality.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=77951675824&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=77951675824&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1098/rsif.2009.0317

DO - 10.1098/rsif.2009.0317

M3 - Article

VL - 7

SP - 727

EP - 739

JO - Journal of the Royal Society Interface

JF - Journal of the Royal Society Interface

SN - 1742-5689

IS - 46

ER -