Detection of population trends in threatened coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

K. Shea, M. Mangel

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Populations of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in California are listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Such listings refer to adult populations, but often, juvenile life history stages are censused, so it is important to understand what affects the relationship between true adult and observed juvenile numbers. We present models to address how observational uncertainty, census length, and autocorrelation in vital rates affect our ability to observe trends. We ask two questions about our ability to detect declines in one life history stage from censuses of another. First, given an observed decline in parr numbers, what is the chance that this reflects a decline in adults? Second, given that adult numbers are declining, what is the chance that we see that decline in parr? Our results indicate that statistical power decreases with increasing observational uncertainty and decreasing census lengths and demonstrate how these two parameters interact. Power increases as the level of autocorrelation in mortality rates increases. Management recommendations include obtaining more accurate estimates of autocorrelation in mortality and of observational uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)375-385
Number of pages11
JournalCanadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
Volume58
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2001

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Oncorhynchus kisutch
autocorrelation
census
uncertainty
parr
life history
mortality
endangered species
detection
population trend

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Aquatic Science

Cite this

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title = "Detection of population trends in threatened coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch)",
abstract = "Populations of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in California are listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Such listings refer to adult populations, but often, juvenile life history stages are censused, so it is important to understand what affects the relationship between true adult and observed juvenile numbers. We present models to address how observational uncertainty, census length, and autocorrelation in vital rates affect our ability to observe trends. We ask two questions about our ability to detect declines in one life history stage from censuses of another. First, given an observed decline in parr numbers, what is the chance that this reflects a decline in adults? Second, given that adult numbers are declining, what is the chance that we see that decline in parr? Our results indicate that statistical power decreases with increasing observational uncertainty and decreasing census lengths and demonstrate how these two parameters interact. Power increases as the level of autocorrelation in mortality rates increases. Management recommendations include obtaining more accurate estimates of autocorrelation in mortality and of observational uncertainty.",
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Detection of population trends in threatened coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). / Shea, K.; Mangel, M.

In: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Vol. 58, No. 2, 01.01.2001, p. 375-385.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

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N2 - Populations of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in California are listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Such listings refer to adult populations, but often, juvenile life history stages are censused, so it is important to understand what affects the relationship between true adult and observed juvenile numbers. We present models to address how observational uncertainty, census length, and autocorrelation in vital rates affect our ability to observe trends. We ask two questions about our ability to detect declines in one life history stage from censuses of another. First, given an observed decline in parr numbers, what is the chance that this reflects a decline in adults? Second, given that adult numbers are declining, what is the chance that we see that decline in parr? Our results indicate that statistical power decreases with increasing observational uncertainty and decreasing census lengths and demonstrate how these two parameters interact. Power increases as the level of autocorrelation in mortality rates increases. Management recommendations include obtaining more accurate estimates of autocorrelation in mortality and of observational uncertainty.

AB - Populations of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in California are listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Such listings refer to adult populations, but often, juvenile life history stages are censused, so it is important to understand what affects the relationship between true adult and observed juvenile numbers. We present models to address how observational uncertainty, census length, and autocorrelation in vital rates affect our ability to observe trends. We ask two questions about our ability to detect declines in one life history stage from censuses of another. First, given an observed decline in parr numbers, what is the chance that this reflects a decline in adults? Second, given that adult numbers are declining, what is the chance that we see that decline in parr? Our results indicate that statistical power decreases with increasing observational uncertainty and decreasing census lengths and demonstrate how these two parameters interact. Power increases as the level of autocorrelation in mortality rates increases. Management recommendations include obtaining more accurate estimates of autocorrelation in mortality and of observational uncertainty.

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