Dissecting a wildlife disease hotspot: The impact of multiple host species, environmental transmission and seasonality in migration, breeding and mortality

V. L. Brown, J. M. Drake, D. E. Stallknecht, J. D. Brown, K. Pedersen, P. Rohani

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

18 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have been implicated in all human influenza pandemics in recent history. Despite this, surprisingly little is known about the mechanisms underlying the maintenance and spread of these viruses in their natural bird reservoirs. Surveillance has identified an AIV 'hotspot' in shorebirds at Delaware Bay, in which prevalence is estimated to exceed other monitored sites by an order of magnitude. To better understand the factors that create an AIV hotspot, we developed and parametrized a mechanistic transmission model to study the simultaneous epizootiological impacts of multi-species transmission, seasonal breeding, host migration and mixed transmission routes. We scrutinized our model to examine the potential for an AIV hotspot to serve as a 'gateway' for the spread of novel viruses into North America. Our findings identify the conditions under which a novel influenza virus, if introduced into the system, could successfully invade and proliferate. & 2012 The Author(s). Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number20120804
JournalJournal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume10
Issue number79
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 6 2013

Fingerprint

Orthomyxoviridae
Viruses
Influenza in Birds
Breeding
Mortality
Human Influenza
Pandemics
North America
Birds
History
Maintenance

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Biotechnology
  • Biophysics
  • Bioengineering
  • Biomaterials
  • Biochemistry
  • Biomedical Engineering

Cite this

@article{04805e15e3284d44b5d13204651e781d,
title = "Dissecting a wildlife disease hotspot: The impact of multiple host species, environmental transmission and seasonality in migration, breeding and mortality",
abstract = "Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have been implicated in all human influenza pandemics in recent history. Despite this, surprisingly little is known about the mechanisms underlying the maintenance and spread of these viruses in their natural bird reservoirs. Surveillance has identified an AIV 'hotspot' in shorebirds at Delaware Bay, in which prevalence is estimated to exceed other monitored sites by an order of magnitude. To better understand the factors that create an AIV hotspot, we developed and parametrized a mechanistic transmission model to study the simultaneous epizootiological impacts of multi-species transmission, seasonal breeding, host migration and mixed transmission routes. We scrutinized our model to examine the potential for an AIV hotspot to serve as a 'gateway' for the spread of novel viruses into North America. Our findings identify the conditions under which a novel influenza virus, if introduced into the system, could successfully invade and proliferate. & 2012 The Author(s). Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.",
author = "Brown, {V. L.} and Drake, {J. M.} and Stallknecht, {D. E.} and Brown, {J. D.} and K. Pedersen and P. Rohani",
year = "2013",
month = "2",
day = "6",
doi = "10.1098/rsif.2012.0804",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "10",
journal = "Journal of the Royal Society Interface",
issn = "1742-5689",
publisher = "Royal Society of London",
number = "79",

}

Dissecting a wildlife disease hotspot : The impact of multiple host species, environmental transmission and seasonality in migration, breeding and mortality. / Brown, V. L.; Drake, J. M.; Stallknecht, D. E.; Brown, J. D.; Pedersen, K.; Rohani, P.

In: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Vol. 10, No. 79, 20120804, 06.02.2013.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Dissecting a wildlife disease hotspot

T2 - The impact of multiple host species, environmental transmission and seasonality in migration, breeding and mortality

AU - Brown, V. L.

AU - Drake, J. M.

AU - Stallknecht, D. E.

AU - Brown, J. D.

AU - Pedersen, K.

AU - Rohani, P.

PY - 2013/2/6

Y1 - 2013/2/6

N2 - Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have been implicated in all human influenza pandemics in recent history. Despite this, surprisingly little is known about the mechanisms underlying the maintenance and spread of these viruses in their natural bird reservoirs. Surveillance has identified an AIV 'hotspot' in shorebirds at Delaware Bay, in which prevalence is estimated to exceed other monitored sites by an order of magnitude. To better understand the factors that create an AIV hotspot, we developed and parametrized a mechanistic transmission model to study the simultaneous epizootiological impacts of multi-species transmission, seasonal breeding, host migration and mixed transmission routes. We scrutinized our model to examine the potential for an AIV hotspot to serve as a 'gateway' for the spread of novel viruses into North America. Our findings identify the conditions under which a novel influenza virus, if introduced into the system, could successfully invade and proliferate. & 2012 The Author(s). Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

AB - Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have been implicated in all human influenza pandemics in recent history. Despite this, surprisingly little is known about the mechanisms underlying the maintenance and spread of these viruses in their natural bird reservoirs. Surveillance has identified an AIV 'hotspot' in shorebirds at Delaware Bay, in which prevalence is estimated to exceed other monitored sites by an order of magnitude. To better understand the factors that create an AIV hotspot, we developed and parametrized a mechanistic transmission model to study the simultaneous epizootiological impacts of multi-species transmission, seasonal breeding, host migration and mixed transmission routes. We scrutinized our model to examine the potential for an AIV hotspot to serve as a 'gateway' for the spread of novel viruses into North America. Our findings identify the conditions under which a novel influenza virus, if introduced into the system, could successfully invade and proliferate. & 2012 The Author(s). Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84872253242&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84872253242&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1098/rsif.2012.0804

DO - 10.1098/rsif.2012.0804

M3 - Article

C2 - 23173198

AN - SCOPUS:84872253242

VL - 10

JO - Journal of the Royal Society Interface

JF - Journal of the Royal Society Interface

SN - 1742-5689

IS - 79

M1 - 20120804

ER -