Embedding black-box regression techniques into hierarchical Bayesian models

Benjamin A. Shaby, Daniel Fink

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Hierarchical models enable the encoding of a variety of parametric structures. However, when presented with a large number of covariates upon which some component of a model hierarchy depends, the modeller may be unwilling or unable to specify a form for that dependence. Data-mining methods are designed to automatically discover relationships between many covariates and a response surface, easily accommodating non-linearities and higher-order interactions. We present a method of wrapping hierarchical models around data-mining methods, preserving the best qualities of the two paradigms. We fit the resulting semi-parametric models using an approximate Gibbs sampler called HEBBRU. Using a simulated dataset, we show that HEBBRU is useful for exploratory analysis and displays excellent predictive accuracy. Finally, we apply HEBBRU to an ornithological dataset drawn from the eBird database.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1753-1766
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Statistical Computation and Simulation
Volume82
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2012

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Applied Mathematics

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