Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling: A case study of flood risk management in New Orleans

Martin Vezér; Alexander Bakker; Klaus Keller; Nancy Tuana

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2123-9

Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling: A case study of flood risk management in New Orleans

Martin Vezér, Alexander Bakker, Klaus Keller, Nancy Tuana

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

13 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between the epistemic benefits of representational completeness and simplicity, which interact with ethical considerations about fairness and human life. We illustrate this point by focusing on modeling studies that assess flood risks in New Orleans, Louisiana. Addressing the ethical and epistemic implications of model design choices can help clarify the scope of factors necessary to inform ethically sound and economically efficient decision-making.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	1-10
Number of pages	10
Journal	Climatic Change
Volume	147
Issue number	1-2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2123-9
State	Published - Mar 1 2018

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Global and Planetary Change
Atmospheric Science

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10.1007/s10584-017-2123-9

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title = "Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling: A case study of flood risk management in New Orleans",

abstract = "Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between the epistemic benefits of representational completeness and simplicity, which interact with ethical considerations about fairness and human life. We illustrate this point by focusing on modeling studies that assess flood risks in New Orleans, Louisiana. Addressing the ethical and epistemic implications of model design choices can help clarify the scope of factors necessary to inform ethically sound and economically efficient decision-making.",

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note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgements We thank Patrick Applegate, Doug Bessette, Chris Forest, Jordan Fischbach, Murali Haran, David Johnson, Rob Lempert, Rob Nicholas, Perry Oddo, and the anonymous reviewers for invaluable input. This work was partially supported by the National Science Foundation through the Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management (SCRiM) under NSF cooperative agreement GEO-1240507, the Penn State Center for Climate Risk Management and the Penn State Rock Ethics Institute. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funding entities. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2017, The Author(s).",

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AU - Tuana, Nancy

N1 - Funding Information: Acknowledgements We thank Patrick Applegate, Doug Bessette, Chris Forest, Jordan Fischbach, Murali Haran, David Johnson, Rob Lempert, Rob Nicholas, Perry Oddo, and the anonymous reviewers for invaluable input. This work was partially supported by the National Science Foundation through the Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management (SCRiM) under NSF cooperative agreement GEO-1240507, the Penn State Center for Climate Risk Management and the Penn State Rock Ethics Institute. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funding entities. Publisher Copyright: © 2017, The Author(s).

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N2 - Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between the epistemic benefits of representational completeness and simplicity, which interact with ethical considerations about fairness and human life. We illustrate this point by focusing on modeling studies that assess flood risks in New Orleans, Louisiana. Addressing the ethical and epistemic implications of model design choices can help clarify the scope of factors necessary to inform ethically sound and economically efficient decision-making.

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Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling: A case study of flood risk management in New Orleans

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