Escaping malthus: Economic growth and fertility change in the developing world

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Following mid-twentieth century predictions of Malthusian catastrophe, fertility in the developing world more than halved, while living standards more than doubled. We analyze how fertility change related to economic growth during this episode, using data on 2.3 million women from 255 household surveys. We find different responses to fluctuations and long-run growth, both heterogeneous over the life cycle. Fertility was procyclical but declined and delayed with longrun growth; fluctuations late (but not early) in the reproductive period affected lifetime fertility. The results are consistent with models of the escape from the Malthusian trap, extended with a life cycle and liquidity constraints.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1440-1467
Number of pages28
JournalAmerican Economic Review
Volume108
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2018

Fingerprint

Malthus
Fertility
Economic growth
Developing world
Fluctuations
Life cycle
Prediction
Trap
Liquidity constraints
Standard of living
Household survey
Catastrophe
20th century
Long-run growth

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

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abstract = "Following mid-twentieth century predictions of Malthusian catastrophe, fertility in the developing world more than halved, while living standards more than doubled. We analyze how fertility change related to economic growth during this episode, using data on 2.3 million women from 255 household surveys. We find different responses to fluctuations and long-run growth, both heterogeneous over the life cycle. Fertility was procyclical but declined and delayed with longrun growth; fluctuations late (but not early) in the reproductive period affected lifetime fertility. The results are consistent with models of the escape from the Malthusian trap, extended with a life cycle and liquidity constraints.",
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Escaping malthus : Economic growth and fertility change in the developing world. / Chatterjee, Shoumitro; Vogl, Tom.

In: American Economic Review, Vol. 108, No. 6, 06.2018, p. 1440-1467.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

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