Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings

Chris Forest, Peter H. Stone, Andrei P. Sokolov

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

109 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We present revised probability density functions (PDF) for climate system properties (climate sensitivity, rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the net aerosol forcing strength) that include the effect on 20th century temperature changes of natural as well as anthropogenic forcings. The additional natural forcings, primarily the cooling by volcanic eruptions, affect the PDF by requiring a higher climate sensitivity and a lower rate of deep-ocean heat uptake to reproduce the observed temperature changes. The estimated 90% range of climate sensitivity is 2.1 to 8.9 K. The net aerosol forcing strength for the 1980s shifted toward positive values to compensate for the volcanic forcing with 90% bounds of -0.74 to -0.14 W/m2. The rate of deep-ocean heat uptake is reduced with the effective diffusivity, Kv, ranging from 0.05 to 4.1 cm2/s. This upper bound implies that many AOGCMs mix heat into the deep ocean (below the mixed layer) too efficiently.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume33
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 16 2006

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climate
oceans
heat
ocean
probability density function
probability density functions
sensitivity
aerosols
aerosol
volcanic eruptions
diffusivity
mixed layer
volcanology
volcanic eruption
temperature
cooling
rate

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Cite this

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abstract = "We present revised probability density functions (PDF) for climate system properties (climate sensitivity, rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the net aerosol forcing strength) that include the effect on 20th century temperature changes of natural as well as anthropogenic forcings. The additional natural forcings, primarily the cooling by volcanic eruptions, affect the PDF by requiring a higher climate sensitivity and a lower rate of deep-ocean heat uptake to reproduce the observed temperature changes. The estimated 90{\%} range of climate sensitivity is 2.1 to 8.9 K. The net aerosol forcing strength for the 1980s shifted toward positive values to compensate for the volcanic forcing with 90{\%} bounds of -0.74 to -0.14 W/m2. The rate of deep-ocean heat uptake is reduced with the effective diffusivity, Kv, ranging from 0.05 to 4.1 cm2/s. This upper bound implies that many AOGCMs mix heat into the deep ocean (below the mixed layer) too efficiently.",
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Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings. / Forest, Chris; Stone, Peter H.; Sokolov, Andrei P.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 1, 16.01.2006.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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