Estimating county-level demand for educational attainment

A procedure is developed based on "step-down" methods familiar from input-output studies to estimate county-level demands for educational attainment. Data requirements include state-level sector by occupation and educational attainment by occupation, as well as county-level employment by sector numbers. An empirical example is presented using three Kentucky counties-one that is manufacturing-dependent, another that is agriculture-dependent, and a third that is services-dependent. In the manufacturing-dependent county, a larger than expected number of operatives had less than a high school education. In the agriculture-dependent county, and elsewhere, agriculture appears to be an "employer of last resort" for those with minimal formal education. In the service-dependent county, a relatively high proportion of the employees had high school or college education. Potential applications of the technique include dynamic shift-share analyses, rural labor market studies, and long-range regional economic development planning.