Evaluation of historical and future cool season precipitation over the eastern United States and western Atlantic storm track using CMIP5 models

Kelly Lombardo, Brian A. Colle, Zhenhai Zhang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study analyzed the contribution of cyclones to projected changes in cool season (1 November-31 March) precipitation over the eastern United States and western North Atlantic Ocean. First, global climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were compared to Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) precipitation analyses for the period 1979-2004. The CMIP5 ensemble mean realistically reproduced the historical distribution of regional precipitation with no discernable effect because of model spatial resolution. Subsequently, the projected changes in precipitation on cyclone and noncyclone days under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario were quantified. While precipitation on both types of days was projected to increase, the increase on noncyclone days (23%) was greater than the increase on cyclone days (12%). The increase in precipitation on cyclone days occurred despite a decrease in the number of cyclone days. This increase can be attributed primarily to a shift toward more frequent extreme precipitation events coupled with a decline in light precipitation events.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)451-467
Number of pages17
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume28
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2015

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storm track
cyclone
precipitation (climatology)
climate prediction
global climate
climate modeling
spatial resolution
CMIP
evaluation
simulation

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

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abstract = "This study analyzed the contribution of cyclones to projected changes in cool season (1 November-31 March) precipitation over the eastern United States and western North Atlantic Ocean. First, global climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were compared to Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) precipitation analyses for the period 1979-2004. The CMIP5 ensemble mean realistically reproduced the historical distribution of regional precipitation with no discernable effect because of model spatial resolution. Subsequently, the projected changes in precipitation on cyclone and noncyclone days under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario were quantified. While precipitation on both types of days was projected to increase, the increase on noncyclone days (23{\%}) was greater than the increase on cyclone days (12{\%}). The increase in precipitation on cyclone days occurred despite a decrease in the number of cyclone days. This increase can be attributed primarily to a shift toward more frequent extreme precipitation events coupled with a decline in light precipitation events.",
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Evaluation of historical and future cool season precipitation over the eastern United States and western Atlantic storm track using CMIP5 models. / Lombardo, Kelly; Colle, Brian A.; Zhang, Zhenhai.

In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, No. 2, 01.01.2015, p. 451-467.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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